A two-bank war

What’s behind the mass evacuation of civilians in Kherson and do they actually believe their houses will be shelled by Ukraine’s army?

“Where are they going to take them?”

“We do not possess this information,” says the hotline agent.

“Where is my mother going to get off the boat? What is the destination? Oleshky or Hola Prystan?”

“We don’t know really.”

“All civilians need to evacuate immediately due to potential mass shelling by Ukraine’s army,” says the automatic responder of the hotline for those willing to move to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. “The shelling may start within a day’s time. Buses taking people to the eastern bank and further east to other Russia’s regions will depart daily starting 7 o’clock from Kherson’s river port. Make sure to take your IDs with you.”

On 18 October, Vladimir Saldo, the so-called “governor” of the Russia-occupied part of Ukraine’s Kherson region, urged people residing on the western bank of the Dnipro to evacuate, claiming that Ukraine was marshalling its forces for a full-scale offensive. He also noted that there was “an imminent danger of flooding due to the planned destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant and a discharge of water at power plants upstream,” announcing his “tough decision but a right one: to move civilians from certain districts of the Kherson region to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.” It is unclear from the statement which side is planning to destroy the power plant.

“Those who will have moved further east to other Russian regions will receive real estate certificates,” Vladimir Saldo said. “Russia’s Deputy PM Marat Khusnullin ordered this. Evacuation and temporary accommodation of the residents of the Berislav, Bilozerka, Snihurivka and Oleksandrivka districts will be free of charge, with the support of Russia’s Emergency Ministry and the Kherson regional government.”

Kherson’s residents received Russia’s text messages urging them to evacuate late at night. Colourful leaflets started to appear in the entrances of apartment blocks the day before, calling on the locals to move to the eastern bank in order to save their families. All leaflets had the hotline number for those who wished to cross the Dnipro River. Most of the people in Kherson rushed downstairs to check their cellars or to stock up on drinking water and noodles. Some tried calling the hotline and were ultimately lost in confusion.

It wasn’t clear where the evacuees would be taken, while the hotline agents never even heard of the real estate certificates Saldo had mentioned.

Collaborators’ escape

“The evacuation is real, there are buses in the city centre which take people to the river port,” says Darya D., 35, a resident of Kherson. “Many people are uneasy. Most of the evacuees only have small bags or backpacks. There’s a limit of 50 kg of luggage per person. I’m going to stay, but some of my acquaintances of pre-retirement age have left. I gave them a call when they were on the bus. They received Russian passports a month ago and worked for the occupiers, that’s why they are leaving. I think they are afraid that Ukraine recaptures Kherson eventually and renders them accountable for treachery. Yes, they do watch Russian TV and believe that the Ukrainian army will target civilians and residential areas. If my house gets hit, I’m going to move into a different one, my neighbours left and allowed me to stay at their place,” Darya says as gunfire and explosions are heard. “It is really noisy today, but I suspect that it might be on purpose so as to urge people to leave sooner. Right, I’m off to the cellar.”

Phone networks went off in downtown Kherson. Viktor, 56, says the city centre is crowded with Russian troops. Viktor refers to them collectively as “the camouflage” and says the soldiers are wandering the local food market looking for booze. A lot of military machinery gathered there, too.

“It seems as if the Russians are preparing some sort of false flag operation; all these movements and hysterical statements are for some reason,” Viktor says. “You remember the information campaign they set up evacuating people from Donbas just before the war started?”

Vera S. who lives in Hola Prystan says many houses in her town are abandoned since many residents fled the war. It is most likely that those houses will now accommodate the evacuees. She is not going anywhere, she says, as she has to take care of her elderly mother who spends all day in bed. Vera supports Putin and rarely misses a news bulletin on Russia’s TV. She keeps working for a Ukrainian enterprise remotely for a salary, and she also receives all sorts of monetary aid from the Russians. Vera received a Russian passport as soon as it became available, but she’s certain this must be kept secret in case Ukraine actually recaptures the Kherson region. Her friends and their children left for Crimea’s Anapa on a two-week health improvement programme, some people only sent their kids there. They have free accommodation there and send her pictures on WhatsApp almost every day of how they swim in the sea and eat their meals. Vera wishes she could have joined them, especially since it’s free of charge, but there’s no way.

Her assumption on the usage of the abandoned houses was confirmed by the local occupation authorities who asked the locals to report abandoned housing in order to accommodate the evacuees from the western bank.

Kherson’s river port was indeed crowded, judging by the photos shared on various Russian Telegram channels. The locals talk a lot about the video of a news reporter for Russia’s Izvestia speaking about the evacuation of the civilians. A young man in a sweatshirt reading “The People’s Front” says there are two queues: one boat sails to Oleshki, the other one is set for Hola Prystan.

“I was waiting to see if the news lady was going to speak to any of the people in the queue and not just to her would-be witnesses,” says Maryna, 45, a Kherson resident. “But you see, she never spoke to anyone in the queue about the evacuation, only about some canine couture. I’m certain that most of the people in the queue are summer visitors, sort of second homers. Some are fugitives with Russian passports, but they avoid appearing on camera.”

I’m not going anywhere

“All my relatives and friends are going to stay,” Maryna says. “We are waiting for this scum to leave our city. We believe in Ukraine’s army, and let the collaborators run.”

Yevhen, 40, an enterpriser from Kherson, is of the same opinion. He’s been in Kherson since the war started. Yevhen attempted leaving with his family Zaporizhzhia-ward several times but returned after spending 3 to 5 days in a car line each time.

“It’s a shame I have no cellar,” Yevhen says. “I thought about using the repair pit in my garage, thought all three of us might fit in there. Then I realised that if the garage collapses, we’re going to be buried alive in there. I think I’ll be watching where the battle is most intense and move around the city to stay away from it. I don’t know what else I can do.”

Yevhen’s family are not considering evacuating to Russia at all. Although they speak Russian, they now hate Russians unconditionally.

“They are a cowardly nation,” Yevhen says with certainty. “Look how many Russians fled their country after the mobilisation was declared: 600 thousand or even more. Those are 600 thousand healthy men in their prime, and they fled their country like cowards. If all those hundreds of thousands rallied in front of the Kremlin, protesting what’s going on, what would happen? Would they be all shot dead or forced into police vans? What if their wives and girlfriends joined them? The Dagestanis are good fellas, the rest are cowardly slaves. So, we Ukrainians have no common path with you people, be it the eastern bank or the western one.”

Vitali Kim, the governor of the neighbouring Mykolaiv region, believes that Russia is most likely preparing a false flag op because there is no other reason they would now be setting up fortifications for bombardment artillery near Chaplynka, a settlement close enough to reach Kherson with their shells.

“My family insists on me joining them, they fear something might happen to me here,” Nadiya, a local elderly woman, says tearfully. “I just can’t. This is some sort of senile greed; I have no other word for it. I hurts me think I might lose my apartment and my belongings, everything I ever had. How can I abandon it. There are so many looters here... When they find out someone abandoned their home, they arrive with their truck in no time and steal everything they can. There are constant explosions all over the place, but I just don’t have enough power to leave, both physically and mentally.

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“All this evacuation fuss is aimed at spreading panic among the local civilians,” Roman Holovnya, the former deputy mayor of Kherson, believes. “It’s how they’re trying to cover up the escape of the collaborators and fill up the media realm in Russia, especially if the Russian troops are going to withdraw from the right bank here. I urge the residents of Kherson to find a safe shelter and store up water and food. We have seen many times that Ukraine’s army does not shell the civilians during offensive, they only execute high-precision strikes against packs of enemy’s troops and equipment. It’s pointless to evacuate to the eastern bank, becoming hostages of the invaders; and it’s important to understand that the occupiers might shell the city in revenge as they retreat. If they do, we’ll be able to evacuate the civilians to Mykolaiv. There’s a lot of talks these days about the potential destruction of the Kakhovka power plant. The occupiers are most likely covering it up with filling the canals going to Crimea. If those imbeciles actually destroy the plant, the water will be flowing at a speed of 14 km/h. This means that it will take it over two hours to reach Kherson, which is enough time to evacuate. There’s a flooding threat for the Korabel district of Kherson and several riverside streets, as well as the eastern bank. The water will reach its maximum level 14 hours after the explosion. There will be no wave whatsoever, and the water level will start dropping in 10 more hours.”