Something’s brewing

Is Russia advancing in the direction of Kupyansk? What about Ukraine’s counteroffensive?

The Russian army has amassed troops to attack in the direction of Kupyansk and Lyman and launched an offensive, said Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesperson for Ukraine’s eastern command.

“There are some 100,000 troops, more than 900 tanks, over 555 artillery systems, and 370 MLRS,” Cherevaty said on 17 July. “The enemy has concentrated its airborne units and its best motorised infantry units. To compare — the peak number of Soviet troops in Afghanistan was 120,000,” he added, pointing out that the Russian group includes reserve soldiers, territorial troops, a variety of PMCs, and Storm-Z units made up of convicts.

“They are concentrating everything to break through our defences,” Cherevaty said.

“Our soldiers are firmly on the defensive. They do not allow the enemy to seize the initiative, dealing constant blows.”

The following day, 18 July, Serhiy Cherevaty said in a briefing that “for some reason, the public has only now turned its attention to this direction. There has been a large group of enemy forces there for a long time. For many weeks now, the enemy has been trying to seize the initiative, be active and break through our defences. For many weeks, [the enemy] has failed to do so”.

According to Cherevaty, the Kupyansk—Lyman direction has long been suffering the most artillery attacks. In the period between Sunday and Monday evening, Russian troops shelled it 536 times and carried out 10 air raids.

“We have emphasised several times that they have a large force there, which unfortunately still has enough ammo and equipment,” Cherevaty noted. “But the quality of its personnel leaves much to be desired. We have repeatedly shown their POWs on social media… Perhaps the comparison to the Soviet forces in Afghanistan struck a chord, and people began to realise what a large number it is. But it has been like this for many months, and this is clearly a sign not of fear, but on the contrary — of pride and honour for our Defence Forces, which for many months have been crushing and driving back [the enemy]… Why are they constantly rotating [their units]? Because they are suffering massive losses… Those 100,000 didn’t appear yesterday. That has been their approximate force for a long time… Sure, it’s big. Sure, we need to take its size into account. But this figure is not an indicator of threat or reasons for fear, but on the contrary — it is a reason to feel pride in the Defence Forces of Ukraine.”

Oleksandr Syrsky, Commander of Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces also mentioned that Russia has launched offensive operations in the direction of Kupyansk.

“In order to stop the offensive actions of our troops near Bakhmut, the enemy is actively deploying additional forces and equipment, mainly paratrooper units, to this direction,” Syrsky said.

“Simultaneously, the enemy has started advancing in the Kupyansk direction, aiming at defeating our troops near Kupyansk and continuing the offensive deep into our battle formations.”

“The 100,000-strong group has been in that area for over a year,” Roman Svitan, a Ukrainian reserve colonel, told Novaya-Europe. “These are the same troops that fled from the Izium direction last year and then became Moscow’s strategic reserves. These forces were mainly concentrated east of Kreminna, near the town of Starobilsk. This force has now been deployed to the front line to carry out nuisance attacks. So far, we have not seen any serious offensive actions. I can assume that these units will launch full-fledged attacks when the Ukrainian army starts a massive breakthrough of the Russian defence in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions. The Russian army will then try to hold back Ukraine’s reserves and force them to move to the Luhansk region. Strategically, Russia will try to squeeze the Ukrainian troops into the Kupyansk—Lyman direction, beyond the rivers Siversky Donets and Oskil, hoping that Ukraine will not have enough forces for active operations in two theatres of war. However, I am convinced that the Russians will not succeed in taking Kupyansk or Lyman.”

Roman Svitan believes that Russia will make some progress only if the Ukrainian high command decides to withdraw its troops to the western banks of the rivers Siversky Donets and Oskil. However, he is convinced that Kyiv will not give up these territories.

Svitan believes that Ukraine will intensify its offensive actions once it receives cluster ammunition promised by the US.

“Ukrainian artillery will ‘soften up’ Russian defence lines, and then the main forces will launch a breakthrough,” anticipates Roman Svitan. “This will happen in late July or early August.”

Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, agrees that Russia is trying to force Ukraine to transfer some of its reserves from Bakhmut and southern directions to the north near Kupyansk and Lyman.

“Moscow hopes to draw Ukrainian troops away from the areas where offensive operations are currently underway,” Musiyenko told Novaya-Europe. “The Kremlin’s main task is to make it impossible for the Ukrainian Army to attack and force them into positional warfare. The northern flank near Kupyansk is in fact the only one where Russian troops can still advance with ease. We must take into account that if Ukraine launches massive strikes in the southern and eastern directions, the Russians will also have to manoeuvre their available reserves and transfer troops from the north. At the moment, the Kupyansk section is the only place on the entire front where Russia is trying to seize the initiative. But I am sure that at the operational and strategic level, success will remain on Ukraine’s side,” Musiyenko explained.

Not all experts are ready to believe these figures, however.

“Overly round figures always cause doubt,” Israeli military expert David Sharp told Novaya-Europe. “100,000 troops and 900 tanks in a single direction are huge numbers for this war.

These figures require an explanation. It is unclear where all this manpower and equipment is located. As far as reserve forces go, they are not concentrated near the front line. The most generous estimates put the number of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine today at about 350,000. It is extremely hard to imagine that almost a third of them are concentrated in a very narrow area from Svatovo to Kreminna. Russia is indeed conducting offensive operations in that direction. But we have not yet come across any evidence of attacks by large formations, even the size of a battalion tactical group.”

By Sharp’s calculations, Russia has only about 1,500 tanks on the entire line of contact, so the claims that 900 tanks are preparing for an offensive on Kupyansk seem doubtful.

Sharp believes that forcing Ukrainian command to divert troops from the Bakhmut direction or use strategic reserves is among the Russian troops’ local goals. Should they succeed, they may continue their offensive by reaching the Oskil River and storming Kupyansk. But this forecast remains speculative until such progress is actually made and confirmed by video footage.

“Ukrainian and allied intelligence would have likely noticed the amassing of such a large group of Russian forces,” Sharp said. “Otherwise it would have been a gross failure. After all, the accumulation of large forces takes a long time. We can assume that Kyiv was aware of this and was preparing for defensive action in such a precarious direction.”