Massive Russian missile strike on Ukraine, Russian grouping trapped on the Kinburn Spit. What's happening on the front line?

“The Kinburn Spit is on the left bank of the Dnipro. The AFU tactical groups go in there, destroy the Russians and go back to Ochakiv. This kind of movement is perceived as an offensive, moving to the left bank and liberating it, but if you look at the map, this spit is almost out to sea and cannot serve as a bridgehead for an offensive. It is just a single action of our tactical groups to destroy the enemy. Moreover, the Russians' entry on this particular spit makes them an excellent target, as it’s impossible to take cover or fortify there, and we are practicing strikes mainly on armored boats.

The town of Oleshky will be liberated and so will the entire left bank from the Antonov Bridge. There is only the sea on the other side of the spit, and we take advantage of the fact that the Russians come out there with their Grads and electronic warfare equipment, and ours just destroy them. Most of our units used to be occupied by other parts of the front, but now there are units that can perform these tasks. Earlier, the Russians did not work from this point, as there was no point in going under direct attack, they could work from Kherson, from there they would hit Nikolaev. Now we have liberated Kherson, and they have no other point except the Kinburn Spit to work on Mykolaiv and Ochakiv, so they trampled a path there, and our forces began to destroy them there, because they themselves get into such a trap.”

According to Svitan, two groups will be enough to achieve Ukraine’s objectives in that direction. One will go in and not let the Russians leave the spit, while the second one destroys the grouping and weapons. There is also another option, according to Svitan, in which the group that blocks the retreat from the spit covers the soldiers with artillery from Ochakiv, but the Russian troops have no choice but to advance, because they have “orders to shell Mykolayiv and Ochakiv.”

“There are hundreds of these ‘Chornobaivkas’ [Svitan is referring to the dozens of Ukrainian attacks against Russian forces near Kherson airport, which caused heavy casualties and equipment losses] all over the front. The Russians attack with a kind of fierce hatred – they’ll keep coming, and we’ll keep destroying them. They’ll die doing the task set and drawn up by someone. That’s why so many Russians die. The area’s marked – it’s already been shot at, and we know where to aim our guns. The Kinburn Spit is a well-marked area. But you cannot understand Russia with your mind, they have a completely illogical approach to the fulfillment of [military] objectives.”

According to Svitan, in the near future we should expect fighting in the Kherson region, as almost 80% of the potential of the Ukrainian right-bank grouping remains unused – millions of shells and dozens of guns, including HIMARS systems. The AFU will start advancing in the Donetsk area or will liberate the left bank from the side of Orikhove to Melitopol, says Svitan.

“Most likely, this untapped potential will pour out on the left bank grouping. There are almost three entry points there – from Orikhove to Tokmak and Melitopol, Kakhovka and Oleshky. If our command decides to develop a bridgehead, these three points – Orikhove, Kakhovka and Oleshky – will be used for a further offensive and de-occupation of the [Dnipro’s] left bank.”

What’s happening in the Kherson region?

According to military analysts, in the Skadovsky and Henichesky districts of the Kherson region, separate Russian units are abandoning populated areas and leaving in the direction of Russian-occupied Crimea. The AFU’s Operational Command South reports that Russia is completing its regrouping of troops on the left bank of the Dnipro river, and continues to arrange defensive borders and fire missiles and artillery at AFU positions and settlements.

In turn, the AFU are striking Russian positions on the seized left bank of the Dnipro river, Natalia Humeniuk, a representative of Operational Command South, said on Espresso TV.
As a result, Russian servicemen are being forced to move 15-20 kilometers deeper into the territory from their defensive structures. The AFU is establishing fire control over logistics routes, and it will be difficult for Russian troops to supply their grouping, Humeniuk noted.

“There is activity of enemy troops on the left bank of the Dnipro with respect to (movement) 15-20 km deep from the [river] bank.”

According to Humeniuk, Russia can threaten to shell liberated Kherson, and the AFU is now using counter-battery means to push back enemy units.

During the retreat from Kherson, the Russian military released convicts from local detention centers and prisoners, a Hromadske correspondent reported. The emergency evacuation “administration” of the pre-trial detention center opened the gates for detainees as they left the facility. The Ukrainian military found cases on 457 convicts in the detention center, of whom 15 were sentenced to life imprisonment. After the Russians fled, all of the convicts fled – so far only one prisoner, who was serving a life sentence, has been found.

The Moscow-installed occupation administration of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region, as well as employees of “state and municipal institutions,” have left the city following the retreat of the Russian army from Kherson, according to a Telegram post issued by the “administration’s” press service. Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published a similar report.

The Telegram post said that the city was “under fire from large-caliber artillery and mortars of the Ukrainian army,” adding that life in Nova Kakhovka had become “unsafe.” The pro-Russian administration also claims that thousands of the town's residents had also left their homes.

On the evening of November 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the recently liberated city of Kherson and addressed Ukrainian security forces. The Kremlin declined to comment on the Ukrainian president's visit to the area, which Russia annexed at the end of September.

Russian losses

According to the AFU, 82,080 Russian servicemen have been killed since the start of the war. The AFU has also destroyed 2,861 tanks, 5,773 armored combat vehicles, 1,850 artillery systems, 393 MLRS, 208 air defense assets, 278 aircraft and 261 helicopters since February 24. In addition, Russia has reportedly lost 1,511 operational-tactical UAVs, 399 cruise missiles, 16 ships, 4,351 vehicles and tanker trucks and another 160 pieces of special equipment during the invasion.

On October 12, investigative outlet iStories, citing an FSB officer and a source from the Russian special services, reported that Russia's irrecoverable losses in the war with Ukraine could amount to more than 90,000 people. The Russian Defense Ministry has reported on the deaths of Russian servicemen three times since February 24. In the most recent announcement, dated September 21 – the day Russia announced its “partial” mobilization – Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu confirmed that 5,937 Russian servicemen had been killed since the start of the so-called “special operation.”

Read more in The Insider's summary of November 14's news: Abandoned Chechen bodies, Pavlivka captured at the cost of 500 Russian troops, Zelensky in Kherson. What's happening on the front line?