ISW: Russian forces decrease rate of offensive along whole frontline

Russian troops have lowered the intensity of offensive operations along the whole frontline which confirms the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conclusion that the Russian offensive is approaching its peak, the ISW said in its daily bulletin.

The institute experts cite Council of Reservists of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Head Ivan Tymochko who claims that

“the pace of attacks in and around Bakhmut has slightly decreased in some areas and stagnated entirely in others”.

According to Tymochko, the Russian assault of Avdiivka has “choked” while Russian forces “still do not control Marinka despite having reduced the city to rubble”.

The ISW also notes that Russian military bloggers also allude to the decreased pace of the offensive pace. Experts quoted one of them saying that “the pace of Russian offensive operations along the entire Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline has decreased over the past day and emphasised that Russian forces are struggling to advance anywhere in Ukraine”

According to Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the DPR Vostok battalion, the Russian command has decided to practically halt the daily ammo issue at the frontline sections where there are no offensives ongoing, the ISW writes. According to the experts,

“Russian forces are using artillery to offset their degraded offensive capabilities”.

Therefore, the continuous artillery ammo “hunger” will strip the Russians of their ability to “offset” their weaknesses on the battlefield, the experts note.

In early April, a senior NATO official told Novaya Gazeta Europe that the ammo supply interruptions can reduce the intensity of the combat. According to him, Russia’s Donbas offensive has “failed” as it could not achieve any success on battlefields in the past ten months. Nevertheless, the Russian military actions “cause a tremendous amount of death and destruction”, the NATO official said.