Lukashenko pardoning prisoners is an attempt to play nice with the West amid growing repression, says Belarusian minister-in-exile

RU

Belarusian authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko granted pardons to 29 political prisoners on Monday amid what human rights groups and the opposition call a renewed wave of repression in the country.

According to calculations by the Belarusian human rights center Viasna, 207 people convicted for their participation in protests and criticism of the government have been released over the past six months, with groups of around 30 individuals being freed at a time.

However, none of the more prominent opposition figures being held as political prisoners have been pardoned. These include Ales Bialiatski, a Nobel Prize laureate, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, who intended to challenge Lukashenko in the 2020 election but was jailed before the vote, and Viktar Babaryka, who was imprisoned after gaining significant political popularity ahead of the election. Other figures, such as opposition activist Mikalai Statkevich and lawyer Maxim Znak, who have not been heard from since late 2023, were similarly absent from the lists of pardons.

Speaking to The Insider, Pavel Latushka, a former diplomat and minister in exile who is now Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, said that news of these mass pardons creates the illusion of liberalization at a time when repressions under Lukashenko have actually intensified.

“Pardoning prisoners is an attempt to play nice with the West. However, the number of people detained, arrested, and convicted far exceeds those Lukashenko releases. This is a dual strategy: he sends signals to the West while continuing the repression because he fears the so-called elections scheduled for Jan. 26 and the possibility of protests.

Currently, Viasna counts around 1,300 political prisoners, but the real number is much higher: many people refuse the political prisoner status because it leads to torture in prisons. The scale of detentions is unprecedented. Last month alone, 671 people were subjected to politically motivated sentences and arrests. Furthermore, the authorities hide protocols and coerce detainees, under threat, to pledge not to disclose details about their cases.

What’s more, we are seeing a second wave — those who were previously pardoned are now being re-arrested. Just last week, two individuals were imprisoned again.

At the same time, no negotiations with Western countries are taking place — only signals. The Americans and Europeans have a clear position: Lukashenko must release all political prisoners and hold democratic elections. But he will not change his domestic policy because he fears a repeat of the 2020 protests. That is why repression will never end, and he will not release all political prisoners out of fear of opposition leaders. He will not register opposition parties that were liquidated, nor will he restore independent media and NGOs. And he cannot sever ties with Russia because he is entirely dependent on it — both militarily and politically.”

At the end of October, Belarusian state media reported that the next presidential election is scheduled for Jan. 26. The independent publication Nasha Niva wrote that Belarusian security forces have compiled lists of “unreliable” citizens who will face preventive searches and arrests ahead of the procedure.

Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus through force and manipulation for more than 30 years, remains one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies. He allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory to launch its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and to station some of its tactical nuclear weapons in the country.