This was Russia today

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Howdy, folks. Today, I compared two recent Foreign Affairs essays by leading Russia scholars, tracing the spectrum of views on the Trump administration’s push for peace in Ukraine. Below, you’ll also find news on the E.U.’s loan plan for a cash-strapped Kyiv and a revealing account of the Kremlin official who quietly pushed back against Putin. Yours, Kevin.

How far apart are Moscow and Kyiv? Two scholars clash over prospects for peace and U.S. strategy.

Earlier this month, the American magazine Foreign Affairs published opposing essays by two scholars of Russia: Sergey Radchenko’s “America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine: A Bad Deal Is Worse Than No Deal” and Thomas Graham’s “The Time to End the War in Ukraine Is Now: Trump Can Defy the Skeptics and Seal the Deal.” Though negotiations between the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and European governments have progressed (or stumbled, depending on your perspective) in the weeks since these texts were released, the arguments presented by Radchenko and Graham remain an excellent encapsulation of the current debate in the United States about President Trump’s attempts to end the war.

Today’s prospects for peace: Radchenko describes Moscow and Kyiv as currently too far apart to reach any agreement and accuses Trump of “chasing a fantasy.” He argues that “the peace of surrender to Putin’s Russia” is likely worse for Ukraine than the human and material costs of war. Opinion polls show broad popular opposition in Ukraine to ceding unoccupied annexed territory, and Radchenko argues that “Washington can afford to back [Ukraine] indefinitely.” Meanwhile, the war has “made Russia poorer, accelerating its demise as a would-be great power.”

Graham paints a grimmer picture of Ukraine’s situation, noting the war’s disastrous demographic consequences, the huge estimated costs of reconstruction, the slow erosion of “the foundations of the country’s fragile democracy,” and its unenviable battlefield situation. At the same time, he too emphasizes the “staggering price” Russia has paid for its invasion. The Kremlin is “mortgaging” the country’s future for the war, he says, and falling behind the great powers, particularly in “cutting-edge technologies.” While Radchenko sees these costs as punishments that the U.S. should try to amplify to pressure Putin into abandoning the war, Graham thinks Moscow already faces enough pressure to accept a diplomatic solution.

The parameters of peace: Though he denounces “Russia’s peace” as disguised aggression, Radchenko acknowledges that some of Moscow’s demands could be part of an eventual settlement. This includes dispensing with the “fantasy” of Ukraine’s accession to NATO, implementing protections for the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and even reinstating the Russian Orthodox Church’s institutional presence. However, this wouldn’t satisfy Putin, Radchenko says, and it’s actually Ukraine’s “survival as a sovereign country” that is at stake.

Graham admits that Putin’s maximalist demands would end Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign, independent state, but he insists that “these gaps are bridgeable.” He reasons that rigorous diplomacy — achieved in “strictly confidential negotiations” — could persuade Russia to accept a ceasefire along the line of contact, so long as Ukraine agrees to “armed neutrality” and NATO pledges to halt further expansion into former Soviet countries.

U.S. policy recommendations: Radchenko credits Trump with having his “heart in the right place” by seeking to end the war, allowing that the White House’s engagement in 2025 led the Kremlin to “tone down its nuclear saber-rattling.” But he faults Trump for appearing overeager for peace (“invariably a bad negotiating strategy”). America should stand by Ukraine as it stood by “the Afghan resistance” in the 1980s, which eventually contributed to the collapse of the USSR. With Europe footing the bill and the Ukrainians defending themselves, Washington is free to sit back and wait for Moscow to “discover the limits of its imperialism the hard way” by becoming bogged down in Ukraine.

There’s less parallelism here with Graham, who urges the Trump administration to deploy its “formidable psychological leverage” over the Kremlin by “validating Russia as a great power and Putin as a global leader.” Graham is more focused on granular (grahamular?) details than Radchenko, calling for bilateral expert working groups to “flesh out the framework agreements” on “territorial disputes, security guarantees, and ceasefire modalities.” Graham also points out that the White House is battling itself to some degree, as the Trump administration’s distrust of the U.S. national security bureaucracy degrades the professionalism of its diplomacy.

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We have a new tradition here at Meduza: every year on our birthday, we update the merch in our online store, Magaz. In 2025, we turned 11 — and despite the considerable challenges we’ve faced this year, we’ve found a pretty original way to bring you a new collection. Here’s a look at the latest clothing and accessories you can buy to rep Meduza and support our work.

News you don’t want to miss today

💶 E.U. approves €90-billion loan to Ukraine after Russian asset plan stalls 🇺🇦

The European Union has agreed to raise a €90-billion loan for Ukraine by borrowing against the bloc’s shared budget, after member states failed to agree on using frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Kyiv directly. The deal secures financing for the next two years amid warnings that Ukraine could face a fiscal crisis in early 2026.

• Plans A versus B: The compromise delivers urgent cash but falls short of a reparations-style loan backed by Moscow’s immobilized funds, which some E.U. leaders saw as more politically and financially just.
• What’s next: Russia’s assets will remain frozen and could ultimately be used to repay the loan if Moscow does not pay reparations. | The Financial Times

👑 A Putin insider who quietly resisted Russia’s war in Ukraine 🇷🇺

Dmitri Kozak, a longtime confidant of Vladimir Putin, emerged as a rare voice of dissent inside the Kremlin during the first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, refusing to demand Ukraine’s surrender and warning repeatedly that the war would bring severe geopolitical and economic consequences. According to new interviews, Kozak advocated negotiations, clashed directly with Vladimir Putin, and later circulated proposals urging domestic liberalization and an end to the war.

• Putin’s narrowing advice: Kozak’s break helps explain why Russia’s war aims hardened so quickly, and why, years later, President Putin has few internal checks on his maximalist demands, even as pressure for a ceasefire grows. | The New York Times

⚖️ How Russia’s Supreme Court redrew the legal lines in a hotly disputed Moscow apartment sale | The new ruling concludes that being misled about motives or consequences — even by scammers posing as federal agents — is not enough under civil law to void a real estate transaction, thereby affirming buyers’ ownership rights.

🇱🇹 Thousands of Lithuanians protest against law to expand government control over state broadcaster | Journalists and supporters have staged rolling demonstrations outside Lithuania’s parliament as lawmakers debate controversial amendments targeting the public broadcaster, with turnout swelling to about 10,000 and a key vote ultimately postponed.

🇺🇸 The U.S. is sending Russian asylum seekers back to the country persecuting them: Meduza spoke with an activist trying to save them from deportation | Tightened U.S. immigration screening and the expanded use of charter deportation flights have led to dozens of Russian applicants being removed with little chance to reroute, according to advocates who say returnees face interrogation, forced conscription, or criminal cases upon arrival.

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