Prigozhin's mutiny and Putin's response: Key developments as of June 24

Prigozhin's factions purportedly made an appeal to the military, urging them to join their cause, and alleged that several security force members either responded positively or refused to engage in combat against the Wagner PMC forces.

Closer to noon, Prigozhin, who previously only made complaints about the military leadership of the country, accused President Vladimir Putin of being “deeply mistaken” in his assessment of the situation. He said that the Wagner PMC units will not lay down their weapons, as they do not want “the country to continue to live in corruption, lies and bureaucracy.” Prigozhin also made it clear that the group was going to attempt to advance to Moscow.

Prior to making the statement, Prigozhin met with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, and berated the official off for addressing him in an informal manner. The Wagner chief also said that he would shoot down the Defense Ministry’s helicopters, and accused the military of organizing “meat grinders” in Ukraine. The talks did not lead to any result. Their conversation took place at a building where Generals Alekseev and Surovikin had apparently recorded their appeals calling on the mercenaries to stop the mutiny a few hours earlier.

In an interview with The Insider, Retired Russian aviation colonel Viktor Alksnis expressed doubts that Prigozhin could hold Russia’s capital, Moscow, even if his units manage to reach the city:

“I doubt that he has any chance of reaching Moscow if Putin and his entourage start putting into practice the words that the president said today in his address. If everything is again limited to loud statements, but nothing is done, then Prigozhin will be able to enter Moscow. Although, he will be able to hold his position with the strength of four thousand people.

The Russian army has hundreds of thousands of men, and not all of them are at the front in Ukraine. Given that Wagner has no artillery and a couple of tanks, it is easy enough to put and use artillery and aviation on a convoy that is moving without serious air defenses. This is where the political will is needed to stop this column.

The internal troops are not designed for combat operations with the professional military. I wouldn't get too excited about news of a mass defection of Russian troops to Wagner’s ranks. It seems to me that these are exaggerated expectations, but the situation will show what will happen next.”