Turkey tries to make peace with Russia. What we know so far.

Ankara apologizes for shooting down Moscow's jet last November. (Maybe.)

After seven months of an almost complete absence of high-level diplomatic interactions between the Turkey and Russia, yesterday President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sent Vladimir Putin a letter regarding the Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet shot down by Turkey's Air Force. The message clearly seems to be Ankara's attempt to reconcile with Russia, but since the letter hasn't been released to the public, it's being interpreted in different ways. Meduza reviews lingering questions about this sudden rapprochement between Russia and Turkey.

Has Turkey asked for forgiveness or not?

What we know of Erdoğan’s letter comes from two sources: the Kremlin’s press office and comments by Turkish officials to the Turkish news media.

The Kremlin's press release explicitly states that Erdoğan apologized to Putin, stating, “I want once again to express my sympathy and deepest condolences to the family of the killed Russian pilot, and say I am sorry. With all my heart, I share their pain. The family of this Russian pilot is for us like a Turkish family. In the name of bringing an end to this pain and all the damage it's caused, we're ready [to discuss] any initiative.”

Turkish officials don't deny that a letter was sent to Putin, but they insist that it contained no “apology,” and instead communicated only “regret.” It's possible that this misunderstanding is the result of the real meaning of Erdoğan’s words being lost in translation, as the letter was likely written in English, it's possible that Erdoğan used the word “sorry,” which the Kremlin understood to be an apology.

In the event that Turkey did not, in fact, apologize, then its present position regarding the downing of the Russian plane differs little from what Erdoğan has said in the past. (Just a few days after the jet was shot down, he used the word “regret” to describe his position on the incident.)

Nevertheless, the Kremlin's interpretation likely indicates Moscow's intention to improve relations with Ankara. Earlier, Vladimir Putin stated that an apology was one of the main preconditions for the resumption of diplomatic contact. And it's already happening: the two presidents are expected to speak on the phone, either on June 29 or June 30.

What obligations does Turkey accept by “apologizing”?

On June 27, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildyrym declared that the country was prepared to compensate Russia for the aircraft. This, too, was among the preconditions specified by the Kremlin for the restoration of full diplomatic relations. So it seemed as if Ankara had accepted all of Moscow’s expectations.

On June 28, however, Yildyrym issued a new statement saying that Turkey has no intention of paying Russia any compensation. “We are simply expressing our condolences and sharing this grief,” he noted.

It's likely that the details about any potential compensation offer, or lack thereof, will become known only after Erdoğan and Putin talk on the phone.

Why did Erdoğan decide to reach out to Putin now?

It's been seven months since the diplomatic relationship between Russia and Turkey fell apart. Good political and economic contacts between Russia and Turkey are mutually beneficial. Nevertheless, neither leader in all this time has wanted to back down. Why did Erdoğan decide to send a letter precisely now, in late June?

There's no clear answer. The chief editor of the Carnegie Center in Moscow, Alexander Baunov, believes Erdoğan may have been responding to Brexit. Having understood that the European Union will be unlikely to accept new members in the near future (as a Europe with Turkey, but without the United Kingdom, would be rather “strange”), he therefore decided to reconcile with Turkey's neighbors outside the EU.

Sergey Frolov, an international relations specialist, says events suggest a change in the direction of Turkey's foreign affairs: in Ankara, they've realized it won't be possible to topple Assad's regime in Syria, which means they've got to reach a compromise with him, and seek the assistance of Russia, which openly supports the regime in Damascus.

How will Russia respond?

For now, there's no direct evidence that Turkey's “apology” will make matters any better with Russians. It's still unknown when the two countries will resume mutual air travel, when Turkish tomatoes will return to Russian grocery-store shelves, or when Russian companies will be able to hire Turkish workers again on the same conditions that they hire people from other countries.