An uncertain fate

Was Russia’s entire 35th Army destroyed near Izyum? Meduza traces this story back to its dubious origins.

The reported annihilation of Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army is one of the most resonant stories to emerge from the front lines in the Donbas in recent days. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak shared the news on June 4, saying that the 35th Army had been “destroyed” during clashes with Ukraine’s Armed Forces near Izyum. Meduza’s own news update cited Yermak’s claim, albeit with the disclaimer that our journalists could not immediately verify this official statement. Upon further verification, Meduza traced these reports back to their actual original source — a LiveJournal post by a Russian military blogger who is currently serving in the “Luhansk People’s Militia.” The post, which provoked controversy among pro-Kremlin military bloggers and has since been removed, doesn’t explicitly say that the entire 35th Army was obliterated. Meduza breaks down how a dubious blog post turned into a story reported around the world.

In this article, our editors attempt to assess the military situation in Ukraine based on the available data. Meduza opposes the war and demands the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

Where did the news about the ‘demise’ of the 35th Army come from?

The Ukrainian press first reported the “destruction” of Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army on June 4, citing the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and President Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, who shared the news on Telegram. Yermak didn’t disclose the source of this information. However, his post was published several hours after the ISW released its “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” for June 3.

In its report and on Twitter, the ISW wrote that a Russian military blogger known as “Boytsovyi Kot Murz” claimed that nearly the entire 35th Army had been destroyed in Izyum. As it happens, “Boytsovyi Kot Murz” is the LiveJournal pseudonym of Andrey Morozov, a Moscow-based blogger who has served in the “Luhansk People’s Militia” since 2014.

The blogger’s own unit was located about 100 kilometers (62 miles) southeast of Izyum, near the town of Toshkivka in the Luhansk region. That said, Morozov did not claim to have personally witnessed the “destruction” of the 35th Army. Instead, he presented a colorful description of its plight, based on the account of an anonymous “combatant” (LiveJournal has suspended the original post, but there are screenshots of it available on Telegram).

According to Morozov, this “combatant” said the following:

• “The 35th Army, fighting in the forests near Izyum, asked me to pass along that the command rose to the challenge of destroying their own troops.” Two of the army’s motor rifle brigades (the 38th and 64th), each had “less than 100 really combat-ready infantrymen left.”
• The brigades’ losses were caused by a lack of equipment for digging (including shovels). As well as Ukrainian artillery shells, whose fuses went off in the trees and hit uncovered troops and vehicles with shrapnel.
• The brigade also had problems with communications; they were not provided with secure radio communications on a regular basis and often had to make do with messengers.
• Mercenaries from the Wagner PMC, who, according to Morozov’s post, were supposed to support the 35th Army’s two brigades, refused to fight near Izyum, because “they don’t get paid THAT MUCH money.”
• Anonymous witnesses from the 35th Army also appealed to Morozov because of another supply problem: they were delivered a truckload of toilet paper, which got soaked in the rain during transport.

Other bloggers and war correspondents who support Russia’s war against Ukraine, told Morozov that he was “out of the loop” with current events. One war reporter who was allegedly embedded with the 35th Army’s “neighbors” at the Izyum bridgehead, said that when he asked the 35th Army about their alleged “destruction” they said they “hadn’t heard” anything about it.

The dispute between Morozov and the war correspondents didn’t end there. Instead, it got personal. Based on this back and forth, it appears that the participants belong to different groups within Russia’s pro-war camp:

• Morozov sides with Igor Girkin (better known as Igor Strelkov), who, since the early days of the full-scale invasion, has argued that Russia is losing the war because the army and the country’s leadership turned out to be incompetent. Girkin’s takes are often quoted in discussions among Western experts about Russia’s failures on the front line. Girkin also weighed in on the story about the 35th Army.
• Morozov’s opponents support the Russian leadership, albeit with some reservations, recognizing that the army has “shortcomings” that need to be corrected.

What is the 35th Combined Arms Army?

In peacetime, the 35th Combined Arms Army was tasked with guarding the Russian-Chinese border in the Amur region and the Khabarovsk Krai. It is one of the weakest formations in the Russian armed forces.

The 35th Army includes the 69th Covering Brigade (which was once a machine-gun artillery division). But its motor rifle component only consists of two separate brigades. In total, the army’s units include six motor rifle battalions and two tank battalions — that is, less than 10,000 men. Its authorized strength is among the lowest in the Russian armed forces.

That said, like other operational formations, the 35th Army has reinforcing units — artillery and missile brigades, a communications brigade, and so on. However, Morozov’s post was specifically about the 38th and 64th Motor Rifle Brigades.

Earlier, both of these brigades took part in the assault north of Kyiv (from the territory of Belarus, where they were deployed in the winter for “military drills”). The Ukrainian authorities consider soldiers from the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade responsible for massacring civilians in Bucha.

The 35th Army’s brigades withdrew from Ukraine in late March (along with all of the other Russian forces that were attempting to encircle Kyiv). But by late April they had already returned to the battlefield — this time, they were sent to the Izyum bridgehead, where they likely replaced the formations of the 1st Guards Tank Army.

The brigades’ exact attack route remains unknown. Military experts believe that these troops were operating near the villages of Velyka Komyshuvakha and Zavody. In all likelihood, they were supported by the 35th Army’s artillery brigade.

In the last month, the front line in this area hasn’t changed: there was heavy fighting until the arrival of the 35th Army’s brigades in April (as the Russian army tried to expand its foothold). Today, this is a secondary site: the main battles are unfolding on the bridgehead’s other flank — near Sviatohirsk and Bohorodychne, where the 30th Motor Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army is advancing.

Could the 35th Army have been wiped out?

We know very little about Russia’s real troop losses in the war against Ukraine. So far, the only tool available for investigating the losses of individual formations is a regional breakdown of the casualties corroborated by open sources (such as the one published and regularly updated by Mediazona).

Presumably, in the regions where the armies are based, local residents make up a significant proportion of their personnel. This means that in the event of these armies suffering abnormally high casualties, regional social media groups would see a “surge” of obituaries. However, in the Amur region, where the 35th Army’s 38th Motor Rifle Brigade and reinforcing units are based, as well as in the Khabarovsk Krai, where its 64th Motor Rifle Brigade is based, the number of obituaries per capita is lower than in neighboring regions. Buryatia, where the 36th Combined Arms Army is based, has the most obituaries per capita in all of Russia — the 36th Army’s units were also spotted near Izyum. The Zabaykalsky Krai ranks second (the even weaker 29th Combined Arms Army is based there, which also guards the border with China).

Finally, it’s worth noting that a significant number of obituaries surface online with a considerable delay. As such, it’s too soon to unequivocally say that the 35th Army has or has not suffered an unusual number of losses in recent days.