HIMARS, CAESAR and Krab. How Western arms deliveries affect warfare in Ukraine

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In other words, the operational situation is now determined by firepower and the ability to concentrate artillery strikes in narrow sections of the front (for the Russian Armed Forces) and, accordingly, the ability to resist such attempts or prevent them in a timely manner (for the AFU). With such a type of armed conflict, artillery (barrel or reactive) together with auxiliary weapon systems (reconnaissance drones and target designation, fire control systems, counter-battery radars), as well as the characteristics of the ammunition used and their available stockpiles play the most important role.

Ukraine's prospects of surviving a “war of attrition” depend on supplies of Western military products: weapons, military equipment, gear and ammunition. And if you follow media headlines, you might get the impression that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have received from the allies huge shipments of weapons capable of decisively changing the situation in their favor.

In fact, according to the calculations of the Institute of World Economy in Kiel (Germany), the total amount of the announced military assistance to Ukraine is about €20 billion, and the cost of supply of weapons and military equipment does not exceed €14 billion (the rest is earmarked funds). And of the announced €14 billion, only €8.5 billion's worth of arms were delivered to the Ukrainian military. E.g. the U.S. announced the deliveries of €6.4 billion's worth of military equipment to the Ukrainian armed forces, but has actually delivered only €2.4 billion. Other military and political partners of Kyiv fulfill their obligations much more quickly, but their volume is insignificant compared to the overall volume.

And if you look carefully at the range of weapons transferred to Ukraine, it turns out that the number of modern Western systems - not of Soviet or Warsaw block origin – that the AFU have at their disposal is still critically low. For example, all tanks and infantry fighting vehicles received by the AFU are modifications of domestic T-72 and BMP-1 vehicles. The vast majority of armored personnel carriers are vehicles based on the American M113, developed back in the 1950s. There are literally just several dozens of more advanced mine-resistant and armored fighting vehicles like the Australian Bushmaster.

Western governments are still only discussing the possibility of supplying combat aircraft and helicopters, as well as Western-made air defense systems like NASAMS. Deliveries of drones, not counting the Turkish Bayraktar, are limited to light reconnaissance models and bomber munitions.

The only category of weapons and military equipment where the inflow of Western weapons is noticeable is artillery systems. And still a significant proportion of them are self-propelled artillery systems (SAU) and Soviet-type MLRS with calibers 152 mm and 122 mm, respectively, handed over by the Czech Republic and Poland. Finding ammunition for them is now a separate headache.