Returning lost territories

Is Kyiv preparing to retake Russian-annexed Crimea by force?

On the eve of Ukraine’s Independence Day, Kyiv hosted the Crimea Platform — an international summit devoted to the deoccupation of the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia forcibly annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Although it was held online, this year’s summit included high-profile guests such as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and many other Western leaders. It also came on the heels of a string of explosions at Russian military facilities in Crimea. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for these attacks, but the change in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s strategy is apparent. Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky’s priority was reclaiming the peninsula through diplomacy. Now, six months of all-out war have led the Ukrainian president to adopt tougher rhetoric — and even hint at the possibility of retaking Crimea by force.

How Russia’s full-scale invasion changed everything

Since he was elected president in 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky has always placed a special emphasis on ending Russia’s occupation of the Crimean Peninsula. In his inauguration speech in May 2019, he named deoccupation among his main policy priorities: “Our next challenge is returning the lost territories. In all honesty, this wording does not seem entirely correct to me because it is impossible to return what has always been ours. Both Crimea and Donbas have been our Ukrainian land.”

During a speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2020, Zelensky called on the global community to help Ukraine get its occupied territories back. Around the same time, Kyiv began developing a state strategy for the deoccupation and reintegration of Crimea, which was approved by presidential decree in March 2021.

Kyiv held its first Crimea Platform summit in August of that year, timed to coincide with the 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence. Forty-seven countries took part in the inaugural summit, but it didn’t have the resonance Zelensky’s office expected. Outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for example, paid a farewell visit to Kyiv on the eve of the Crimea Platform, but did not stay for the summit, while France, Britain, and the U.S. sent formal representatives — not top officials. Nevertheless, Kyiv’s plans for returning Crimea made headlines around the world and Ukraine received additional international support. Russia’s reaction to the summit was predictably negative.

The Crimea Platform also had domestic political significance for Zelensky. In 2021, the president’s ratings fluctuated dramatically and Zelensky’s team needed a win to make up for their failures and stave off criticism from the national-patriotic opposition. The president’s media strategy focused on the fact that Zelensky’s predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, had done nothing to achieve the deoccupation of Crimea. Indeed, there had been no uniform state policy regarding the occupied peninsula beforehand.

Notably, Ukraine’s strategy for the deoccupation of Crimea predominantly relied on diplomacy. This even remained the case for a period of time after Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022. On April 5, Zelensky rejected the possibility of returning the occupied peninsula by force, insisting that an agreement with Russia should stipulate that the issue of Crimea must be resolved through diplomacy over the next 10–15 years.

However, the further escalation of the war hardened Kyiv’s stance. On August 9, the Ukrainian president stated that Russia’s war against Ukraine “began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — with its liberation.” A week later, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky’s chief of staff, said that the Crimean Bridge linking the occupied peninsula to southern Russia is “the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea” and “should be destroyed.” In turn, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Wall Street Journal that Ukraine would liberate occupied territories by force. And on Ukraine’s Flag Day, Zelensky vowed that the yellow-and-blue banner (as well as the Crimean Tatar flag) would soon fly “in Yalta, in Kerch, in Dzhankoy, [in] Simferopol, [and] on Ay-Petri.”

This toughening of rhetoric speaks to a deadlock in the attempts to reach a diplomatic settlement: Kyiv is convinced that the Kremlin considers Ukraine’s capitulation the only possible condition for peace — so there’s no reason not to cross Moscow’s “red lines” anymore.

Playing a new hand

Kyiv hinting at plans to retake Crimea by force comes against the backdrop of a series of explosions at Russian military facilities on the peninsula. On August 9, blasts at the Saki air base near Yevpatoriya destroyed several Russian warplanes. One Western official told Reuters that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet lost more than half of its naval aviation combat jets. The Russian Defense Ministry refuted reports that Ukrainian forces had attacked the airfield, blaming the explosions on the mishandling of ammunition.

On August 16, an explosion destroyed an ammunition depot near Dzhankoy. This time around, the Russian Defense Ministry condemned the blast as a Ukrainian “act of sabotage.” This was followed by reports of Ukrainian drone attacks, air defense systems being triggered, and more explosions in other areas of the peninsula, including at the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol.

Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for these attacks, but Zelensky has pointedly urged Ukrainian citizens to stay away from military facilities in occupied Crimea.

The strikes on Crimea may be evidence of the Ukrainian army adopting new tactics. Lacking the resources for a counteroffensive in the south, Ukrainian forces are seeking to hit the Russian army at the rear, taking out its supply bases and disrupting enemy communications. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said as much in an interview with the Washington Post: “They have their full depots of ammunition in Crimea, and they deliver them to the south of Ukraine, the mainland. So we need to destroy them, like we did in the Kyiv campaign, to cut their logistics line.”

Be that as it may, the prospect of Ukraine liberating Crimea by military means seems unrealistic at present. By demonstrating its ability to target the enemy in Crimea, Kyiv is likely seeking to test the strength of Vladimir Putin’s position, as he has repeatedly made clear that the security and inviolability of Crimea (which he considers part of Russia) is one of the Kremlin’s “red lines.” As the French daily Le Monde writes, Zelensky has “made it clear that the time for negotiation is slipping away faster than ever, and that he is playing a new hand in the war of attrition. Mr. Putin [...] will have to once again take into account the resilience of Ukraine. Having himself made Crimea a red line.”

In terms of domestic politics, it’s also important for Zelensky’s team to demonstrate the Ukrainian army’s technical superiority in order to raise the public’s morale. Attacks on Crimea are one of the best ways to prove this superiority.

The West rallies around Kyiv

In terms of its deoccupation policy for Crimea, one of Kyiv’s main hopes rests on the consolidated support of the West. Whereas before February 2022, all of the focus of international diplomacy was placed on the Donbas and the Minsk agreements, after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine can count on more serious support when it comes to the liberation of Crimea.

For security reasons, the 2022 Crimea Platform was held online; only Polish President Andrzej Duda attended in person. However, unlike in 2021, the guest list turned out to be impressive: among the high-profile speakers were U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. In total, more than 60 countries and international organizations took part in the summit.

Speaking at the opening of the Crimea Platform on August 23, Zelensky stated once again that Ukraine will liberate Crimea and that the peninsula will become part of the European Union “together with our entire state.” He also underscored that Ukraine will take back Crimea “in any way we decide” and “without consulting any other state.” Foreign leaders also made tough statements, especially those representing countries on NATO’s eastern flank. Poland’s Andrzej Duda, for example, said it would be unacceptable for Russia and Ukraine to return to their pre-February 24 lines — “it’s necessary to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine, together with Crimea” — and Estonian President Alar Karis actually quoted Zelensky, saying “this war began in Crimea and must end in Crimea.”

As a result of the Crimea Platform, all of the summit’s participants pledged to continue international pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine, with the goal of achieving the deoccupation of Ukrainian territories. Last year’s summit ended with a similar resolution, but despite the resemblance in wording, the content has changed radically. In 2021, it was more about symbolic support for Ukraine and pushing back against the notion that the annexation was a “fait accompli” (Western countries recognized Russia as an occupying power for the first time). Today, international pressure on Russia has taken the form of unprecedented sanctions and the West is showing its support for Ukraine through massive amounts of military and economic aid.

Essay by Konstantin Skorkin

Translation by Eilish Hart