Putin’s last shot

Novaya. Europe’s editor-in-chief Kirill Martynov explains why missile strikes on Kyiv mean that Putin’s defeat is closer than before

On the morning of 10 October, the Russian Federation carried out massive missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. From a military point of view, the attack makes no sense, and it only hastens the Russian army’s defeat. The political reasoning for what’s happening is as follows: Putin is completely ignoring the reality of the situation, he’s got no trump cards left, but he will continue holding onto power until he has tried to wholly destroy both Ukraine and Russia. As is known, they “can repeat” (“We Can Repeat” is a popular military slogan that implies that the Russian army can reach Berlin again, just as in 1945 — translator’s note). Apparently, these slogans implied cruise missiles hitting the Volodymyrska Street in Kyiv. They repeated as well as they could.

The attack began two days after the explosion on the Crimean Bridge. This is the speed with which decisions are made in the Kremlin: during that time, no one there was able to come up with a more convincing response than a mass launch of the remaining Kalibrs and old Soviet anti-ship missiles on Ukrainian cities. Putin has neither successes on the front nor new leverages for economical blackmail of the world. However, the Russian side is openly calling the explosions in the centre of Kyiv and the attempts to destroy [Kyiv’s] Thermal Power Station a “revenge for the bridge” and is treating these events as a call for celebration. These statements are made not only by “Z” Telegram channels, but also, for example, by [Russia’s state news agency] RIA Novosti. Propaganda has never before so openly announced the terrorist nature of this war against Ukraine, the goal of which is now officially to “terrorise everyone” and “wipe everything off the map”. When you justify an aggressive war for long enough, you become Goebbels.

In accordance with international law, the Crimean Bridge is a legitimate military target for Ukraine. The bridge was built on Ukraine’s territory annexed in 2014 and is used for supplies to be brought to the military grouping of the Russian occupying army in Kherson. It’s easy to find videos online that show echelons of tanks passing the Crimean Bridge.

For Putin, the “attempt on the bridge” is an event of a more mythical quality — it’s something of a direct attack on his ability to be a dictator and sow chaos. It’s not surprising that the response to the bridge being threatened is irrational and has nothing to do with the military logic of what’s happening. The point of the “special military operation” is so Putin can try to exterminate Ukrainians by any means, up to a nuclear bomb — everyone is by now tired of nuclear threats being uttered — while Ukraine defending itself is classified as “terrorism”. All of this feels like a deja vu, a reference to the events of 1999 when Putin came into power. However, today’s Putin, once again talking about a terrorist threat to Russia, resembles a figure on its way out: he has nothing left to offer Russians, except for an endless war.

Attacking civilian infrastructure can have military sense for the aggressor, if they are certain of their ability to terrorise the population and break its fighting spirit. In the case of Ukraine, that didn’t happen and won’t happen now. The 40-million population of Ukraine hates the Russian Federation and Putin personally and is demanding that war criminals be held responsible for their actions. The last time residents of Moscow had to hide from a bombing in the metropolitan was in 1941, while citizens of Kyiv had to do so today — these are different levels of motivation. Even the people who previously could be loyal to the Kremlin are changing their views after criminal attacks on Ukraine’s cities. A photo of the formerly pro-Russian Mayor of Kharkiv Mykhailo Dobkin, who is now serving in Ukraine’s Armed Forces, has been often shared online.

Besides, every future crime openly committed by Russian authorities will motivate Europe and the US to aid Ukraine by all possible means. After the missile strike on Kyiv on 10 October, Ukraine will get modern air defence systems and, possibly, long-range offensive weapons faster.

No one is ready to live in the world in which Putin has won, so any future escalation started by him will lead to Ukraine getting armed better.

Putin’s achievement is that there’s now a million men army standing on the Russian border, and it will not lay down its arms until the aggressor has been kicked out and the army has received significant safety guarantees for their families and cities.

It’s beyond doubt that systematic strikes on civilian infrastructure with old Soviet missiles can lead to a bigger humanitarian catastrophe, an energy crisis, and lack of water supply — as it is happening on the “liberated” territories of Ukraine’s South. In addition to people’s suffering, the only thing these strikes will eventually lead to is the entire developed world standing against the economic and social chaos in Ukraine, while the only country to hurry to recognise the Kremlin’s “territorial acquisitions” has been North Korea.

The explosion on the Crimean Bridge coincided not only with Putin’s 70th birthday but also with the commander of the Russian invasion army being appointed: the position went to general Sergey Surovikin, a man with an appropriate biography. In August 1991, he was ready to use tanks to crush unarmed Moscow citizens that had been protesting against the dictatorship; due to his actions, he even spent time behind bars. Now, Surovikin has earned the biggest praise from [Yevgeny] Prigozhin: well, back then, Surovikin received an order, and got into the tank without question. In 2017, Surovikin had honed his skills in Syria’s Aleppo by wiping the city off the map, after which he received an incredible promotion: ex-commander of a rifle platoon became commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Surovikin’s skill of “not questioning orders” has now served him well so he can bear personal responsibility for the attacks on Ukrainian cities. Maybe, his plan is to do a repeat of Aleppo in every city of Ukraine.

But even that won’t help Putin win this war.