Tell-tale signs

While keeping the Russian forces at bay in Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the Ukrainian army is gathering strength for a counteroffensive. Our updated combat map tracks the evidence of incipient new developments.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Meduza has adopted a consistent antiwar position, holding Russia responsible for its military aggression and atrocities. As part of this commitment, we regularly update an interactive map that documents combat operations in Ukraine and the damage inflicted by Russia’s invasion forces. Our map is based exclusively on previously published open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect reports already available publicly and determine their geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process.

Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

What was new as of 1 p.m. GMT (9 a.m. EDT), March 22

The Ukrainian military persists in holding Bakhmut, despite the fact that its situation in the city hasn’t yet improved. Meanwhile, Russian troops are now on the offensive near Avdiivka, where they hope to envelop the fortified area north of Donetsk. The invading army is also advancing on Kreminna, north of Bakhmut. Still, the first tell-tale signs of an incipient Ukrainian counteroffensive are beginning to emerge, judging by evidence reported in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Bakhmut

• The Ukrainian command has shifted significant resources to the Bakhmut area. Several fresh battalions concentrated in one particular location are preventing Wagner Group mercenaries from surrounding the city completely. For the time being, Ukraine’s defenders have successfully kept Russian formations from gaining control over the road leading westward from Bakhmut through Khromove, which serves as Ukraine’s supply lifeline. Video footage shows Ukrainian counterattacks on Wagner mercenary positions a few hundred yards from that road.
• Wagner Group formations are storming the southwestern exit road from the city, now largely unusable for the Ukrainian army. The latter is assaulting the Russian units situated along the road. Near Ivanivske, this has resulted in Wagner Group’s retreat from frontline positions.
• Ukrainian forces are not doing as well in Bakhmut itself or elsewhere in its suburbs. Russian mercenaries are making inroads both north and south of the city’s center. Most of the industrial zone north of the city (including the metallurgy plant located there) has been captured. In the south of Bakhmut, Wagner formations have reached Mariupol Street, beyond which they would be in the immediate city center.
• Wagner Group has made the most progress in Bakhmut’s northern suburbs. Advancing along the Bakhmut–Chasiv Yar railroad, they have gone as far as Bohdanivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka, where they are now taking advantage of elevated new positions. This presents a real threat, both of Bakhmut being surrounded and of mercenary troops accessing Chasiv Yar from the northeast. Additionally, Prigozhin’s forces are advancing along the Bakhmut–Kramatorsk thoroughfare, where they’ve already captured the small village of Zaliznyanske, also reaching elevated positions.

Avdiivka

• The Russian federal army has begun an offensive north and southwest of Avdiivka. Until then, the city and its suburbs were shelled daily for several weeks. Sources on both sides acknowledge the invasion force’s significant advances northward of Avdiivka. Some sources claim that Krasnohorivka, for example, has been captured, and that the Russian troops are now moving westward from that location. Still, there isn’t yet any visual evidence that this is really the case. According to some Russian sources, the invading army has only gained a foothold in Krasnohorivka, while heavy battles continue with huge losses for the Russian side.
• Russian forces are definitely taking major losses southwest of Avdiivka, where their offensive is clearly a struggle. Video footage shows, for example, the decimation of an entire armored convoy between the local villages of Vodyane and Sjeverne.
• Still, the Russian offensive in this area is generating a crisis for the Ukrainian command. Avdiivka is now halfway to being fully enveloped. If the defenders ultimately have to leave it, this will lead to the collapse of the entire frontline north of Donetsk. Holding the city, on the other hand, would require mobilizing reserve troops that the Ukrainian military hopes to save until it’s ready to launch a full-scale counteroffensive. (Even so, a portion of those reserves has already been directed to Bakhmut.)

The Zaporizhzhia region

For the first time in a long while, Ukraine is conducting a major assault in the Zaporizhzhia region. Southeast of Orikhiv, a Ukrainian formation of unknown size has tried to break through southward along the road to Tokmak. Russian forces deflected this assault, and Ukrainian forces lost several units of armored equipment. This may have been a combat reconnaissance mission or possibly a distracting maneuver aimed at forcing Russia to concentrate more of its reserves on this segment, paving the way for the main offensive elsewhere.

The data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old. Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!

Translated by Anna Razumnaya