Prigozhin claims Bakhmut is ‘legally captured’

Here’s what this means, and other key developments on our updated combat map

Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Meduza has adopted a consistent antiwar position, holding Russia responsible for its military aggression and atrocities. As part of this commitment, we regularly update an interactive map that documents combat operations in Ukraine and the damage inflicted by Russia’s invasion forces. Our map is based exclusively on previously published open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect reports already available publicly and determine their geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process.

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What was new as of 8 p.m. GMT (3 p.m. EDT) on April 3

Wagner Group has captured Bakhmut’s city center. The mercenary group’s founder Evgeny Prigozhin has personally raised the Russian state flag along with a Wagner banner over the ruins of the Ukrainian government building, which had probably been blown up by the retreating Ukrainian forces. The Russian military has now occupied around 70 percent of the city’s area. The Ukrainian army still controls western Bakhmut and the areas adjacent to the narrow supply corridor used by the Ukrainian forces. Unless Ukraine launches its long-anticipated spring counteroffensive in the coming weeks, it will likely lose Bakhmut to the invading army and mercenary formations.

Bakhmut

• In mid-March, Wagner Group punctured the Ukrainian defenses in the south of the city. Over two weeks of intense street fighting, the mercenaries moved parallel to Bakhmutka River, under the protection of their own artillery from the other bank, until they finally made it to the city center. The exact timing of their arrival upon the ruins of Bakhmut’s Municipal Rada building remains unclear. On Sunday evening, Prigozhin posted a video of himself raising the Russian flag over the building’s carcass. Since no shelling or gunshots could be heard in the footage, the nearest Ukrainian positions must have been some ways away from the city center.
• Wagner Group’s assault on downtown Bakhmut became possible due to the Ukrainian side’s logistical problems. In March, the Ukrainian command sent additional reserves into the narrow corridor that connected the nearly-enclosed Bakhmut with the Ukrainian “mainland.” The defenders were able to prevent Bakhmut from becoming completely enveloped, by keeping a hold on Khromove in the north and Ivanivske in the south. Still, Ukrainian reserve forces were unable to push Wagner formations back from the roads that connect Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar 10 kilometers (6 miles) west of the city. Because the roads are vulnerable to fire, they are strewn with dozens of disabled vehicles, and their number is growing.
• After the Ukrainian command sent in its reserve forces, Wagner Group itself changed the direction of its main assault efforts: earlier, it had tried to envelop the city by closing the line in the hills west of the urban area; now it’s attacking right within the city limits, taking advantage of the delay in the supplies and reinforcements deliveries to the Ukrainian side. As a result, Wagner mercenaries entered the city center not just from the south and east, but also from the north. This is probably what ultimately forced the defenders to leave downtown Bakhmut.
• Wagner units are also advancing from the northwestern and southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut, trying to enclose the city within its residential limits. In the southwest, they had been halted on Korsunsky St.; in the northwest, they were able to capture several pond-side blocks in the Posyolok district.
• Only a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive can prevent the complete capture of Bakhmut by the Russian forces. For the time being, though, the defenders are only conducting localized counterattacks, and even those are not always successful. The attempt (likely by the 30th motorized brigade) to advance along the Bakhmut–Kramatorsk thoroughfare by Minkivka has failed: the Russian artillery prevented this attack from developing, while the Ukrainian side suffered losses in both personnel and equipment. (Wagner Group later published a drone video of the attempted attack.)

Other directions

On nearly all other directions, the Russian offensive has ground to a halt. There’s some small movement in the Lyman direction and also by Avdiivka, but in recent days the Russian attacks in those areas have give way to Ukrainian counterattacks. This is perhaps exactly what the Ukrainian command has been waiting for: the signs of the Russian side’s depletion should pave the way for the spring counteroffensive long expected of Ukraine. According to President Zelensky, the coming week should indeed be “important on the way towards victory.”

The data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old. Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!

Translated by Anna Razumnaya