All quiet on the front

Ukraine switches focus from frontline combat to Russia’s rear positions. Meduza shares an updated combat map.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Meduza has adopted a consistent antiwar position, holding Russia responsible for its military aggression and atrocities. As part of this commitment, we regularly update an interactive map that documents combat operations in Ukraine and the damage inflicted by Russia’s invasion forces. Our map is based exclusively on previously published open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect reports already available publicly and determine their geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process.

Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of 6:00 p.m. GMT (2:00 p.m. EDT) on July 10, 2023

On July 4, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov reported that, at this point in the offensive, Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) are banking on the destruction of Russia’s manpower and equipment, and that they will be able to liberate territory after the Russian defenses have been exhausted. Many took this to be a “change of strategy” in the offensive, although other Ukrainian politicians reiterate that this was the AFU’s intention since the beginning of the operation.

Whether or not there has been a change in strategy, it’s clear that the AFU have switched tactics. At the beginning of June, the Ukrainian army tried to break through Russian defense lines in armored units. In the second half of June, they focused on attacking the Russian rear while using combined infantry and artillery to storm Russian fortifications. In the last few days, there were hundreds of videos posted of strikes on Russia’s nearest rear positions — ammunition depots, artillery, air defense systems, and electromagnetic warfare.

Russia’s armed forces have been reciprocating — continuing to carry out strikes on the Ukrainian rear since the start of Ukraine’s offensive in June. Now, Russian units from different parts of the front are also making their own attempts to advance, possibly with the goal of pulling away the Ukrainian reserves from moving in the direction of their main attack in the south of the country and near Bakhmut.

Bakhmut

• Both sides now have more forces fighting on the flanks of Bakhmut than in the south. The AFU have been attacking Russian positions since the beginning of May, but only at the start of July were they able to reach key points in Russian defenses south of Bakhmut, namely the heights west of Klishchiivka — where the AFU built a large fortified district even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In December 2022, Wagner Group captured the district, causing the southern regions of Bakhmut to quickly collapse. Ukrainian forces are now trying to regain their positions. A video posted on July 9 shows an AFU attack in the immediate surroundings of this fortified district. The result of the attack is unknown.
• In the case that Klishchiivka and the nearby heights are freed, the AFU can capture Bakhmut from the south and try to cut off the road to Horlivka and Popasna, where bases to supply Russia’s units in Bakhmut are located.
• On Bakhmut’s northern flank, the AFU have again attacked the villages of Berkhivka and Yahidne, located on the northwest outskirts of the city. So far, the attacks have not been successful.

Orikhiv direction

In the center of the AFU’s southern front, they continue to attempt breaking through from the side of Orikhiv to reach an important road junction and the Russian forces’ rear base in Tokmak.

The first objective remains the village of Robotyne, where the first line of Russian defenses is located. In the past few days, the AFU have been able to move closer to the village. Ukrainian infantry have stormed the forward trenches on the road between Orikhiv and Tokmak. However, they have not yet been able to break through the Russian army’s defenses.

Other directions

The Russian forces have organized two offensives, likely with the goal of immobilizing the AFU’s reserves. Large Russian forces are advancing to the north of Avdiivka, where the Russian army has many times unsuccessfully attempted to surround the city and the large AFU fortification which surrounds it. Fighting is taking place around the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, a tall AFU-controlled man-made hill. This is likely the Russian army’s largest (by number of forces) offensive since the capture of Bakhmut. The result of the attack isn’t clear yet.

A smaller-scale Russian offensive is moving in the direction of Svatove, where Russian forces are trying to capture the village of Novoselivske and the Kuzemivka Railway Station, liberated by the AFU in the winter. It’s also not clear yet whether Russian troops were able to capture any territory in the area.

The data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old. Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!

Translation by Sasha Slobodov