Fanatical but not insane: Frank Ledwidge on why Iran and its proxies are reluctant to engage in a full-scale war with Israel

The very fact that he has managed to survive through all these years is testament to his skills, and the resilience of his organization in general. He is certainly at the very top of Israel’s target list. He sees himself now, and has done for some time, as part of an anti-Israeli “resistance axis“, composed of Iran and Sunni Islamist groups such as Hamas.

Nasrullah and Iran are weighing the costs and consequences of striking Israel at what may seem its weakest time. However, they fully understand the dangers. The immediate strategic result would be the effective destruction of Lebanon as a modern state. In 2006, Israeli air attacks devasted much of Lebanon’s infrastructure. Nasrallah is fully aware too that full commitment to the fight would ultimately result in the end of Hezbollah as an effective force, blasted and battered by Israel and US air power.

If Iran were to follow Hezbollah into war, it would probably act quickly. It has the capability of causing great damage to its neighbors and the regional and global economy. Oil prices would rise for a start, as supplies would be severely restricted from all the Gulf oil states. However, Iran would also face a catastrophic response by the US and Israeli air forces as well as other western air forces such as the UK’s RAF and the French air force, along with the large Saudi and Gulf states air forces.