Not-so-quick fix. U.S.-approved $60 billion can plug the hole in the Ukrainian budget for now, but Russia still has more money for the war

Long-awaited approval

After nearly six months of seemingly inexplicable delays, the U.S. Congress has finally approved a $60.8 billion aid bill for Ukraine by a vote of 311-112. President Joe Biden signed it on Apr. 24 and announced that deliveries of critical weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) would resume within hours. Despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of U.S. Congressional representatives have supported extending aid to Ukraine since October, when a similar bill was passed by the Senate, Republican leadership in the House of Representatives prevented the proposal from coming up for a vote. Initially, aid to Ukraine was included in the same document as support for Israel, Taiwan, and a few other U.S. national security initiatives. But the Republican majority in the House has long made it a condition of the vote to include measures to protect the southern border from an influx of illegal immigrants.

In early April, the single bill was split into four, and on Apr. 20, the House approved the Ukraine aid bill. On Apr. 23, the Senate voted in its favor. The Pentagon announced the first $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine on Apr. 24.

How much military aid will Ukraine receive?

Overall, the funds allocated for Ukraine are impressive. The total amount earmarked for the purchase and delivery of arms exceeds both the European Peace Fund (which is intended for the period up to 2027) and the share of arms purchases in the Ukrainian budget. These estimates are valid even considering that, as independent military analyst Colby Badhwar explained to The Insider, military aid as such accounts for less than half of the allocated $60.8 billion. Still, the full effect of the aid package will not be felt immediately.

First, $7.8 billion will be allocated for the supply of arms and military equipment from the stockpiles of the U.S. armed forces under the PDA mechanism. Together with $3.9 billion unspent in prior periods, the total for operational supplies amounts to $11.7 billion.

Second, $13.8 billion is set aside for the USAI program, which provides for long-term procurement of military products. This means that USAI-announced deliveries take months — if not years — to end up on the battlefield.

Third, $1.6 billion has been allocated for the FMF (Foreign Military Financing) loan program focused on long-term military construction projects.

This gives us a total of $27.1 billion, but only $11.7 billion from this amount can be spent on operational supplies consequential for the combat situation in the short to medium term. In reality, the available PDA funds will be smaller because the U.S. Department of Defense has already demonstrated a reluctance to reach the approved limits without financial assurances of reimbursement for transferred military equipment. With some strain, the category of military aid can also include preferential budget loans for $8 billion, bringing the total to $35.1 billion at best.