Battle of attrition: Renewed “meat grinder” assaults fail to turn tide for Russian army in Ukraine

RU

After months of intense combat around Avdiivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Russian forces eventually managed to breach the Ukrainian defenses to the east of the town’s coke and chemical plant. They swiftly advanced into the urban area, cutting off the only paved road supplying the southern part of the city. Not even reinforcement from Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade, considered one of the most capable units of the country’s armed forces, could reverse the tide. Ukrainian command hastily ordered a retreat from the city, which was not executed smoothly. Ukrainian fighters withdrew through fields and back roads, even leaving behind some vehicles. However, only “dozens” of soldiers fell into Russian captivity (the Ukrainian command cites a figure of25 POWs). Some of them, left at the “Zenith” position due to the inability to evacuate the wounded, were executed by arriving Russian soldiers. But while the battle was a costly defeat for Ukraine, the capture of Avdiivka came at a high cost for the Russian Armed Forces as well, with estimates of those killed in action reaching up to 17,000.

Besides the numerical superiority of the Russian Armed Forces in both personnel and equipment, one of the factors contributing to the fall of Avdiivka, as pointed out by both sides, was Russia’s use of (1, 2) guided air-dropped bombs equipped with the UMPK module. These bombs, ranging in size from 500 kg to 1.5 tons, have the capacity to destroy even well-built fortifications. Ukrainian forces, it seems, have yet to find an effective countermeasure to this threat. The Ukrainian Air Force Command has repeatedly claimed (1, 2, 3, 4) to have shot down Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers that deploy these bombs, but none of these alleged losses have been independently verified. It is anticipated that the arrival of F-16 fighters in Ukraine, scheduled for this summer, may alter the situation. However, as of now, Russian bombing raids pose the most pressing challenge for both the frontline troops and the logistical operations of theAFU.