Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russian advances near Kharkiv and Donetsk stalled, unprecedented Ukrainian drone attack on Russia and Crimea

While the exact cause of the explosion in Belgorod cannot yet be determined, similar incidents have occurred across the region. On the night of May 11, a Russian missile reportedly fell in the village of Novosadovy, injuring three people. Incidents involving the impact of Russian aerial bombs on Russian territory occurred several times during the week — in particular, in the village of Razumnoye in the suburbs of Belgorod, less than 8 kilometers from the building where 17 people were killed on the same day.

In total, The Insider has calculated that Russian munitions have fallen “abnormally” in the region at least 44 times since the beginning of 2024.

The situation in the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” is even worse, according to a report by ASTRA. There, 40 “abnormal” aerial bombs have impacted various locations. Unlike the Belgorod Oblast, they cannot be defused due to a lack of explosive technicians.

Losses

Russian casualties, as confirmed by open-source data analyzed by the independent outlet Mediazona, the BBC Russian Service, and a team of volunteers, rose by 1,431 in two weeks to reach 53,586. The total number of dead Russian servicemen has been estimated at 107,000.

The most notable of the Russians whose deaths were confirmed was Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky, who adopted the name, surname, and patronymic in honor of the Bolshevik revolutionary who oversaw the Red Terror of 1918-1922. While the “original” Dzerzhinsky founded the Soviet state security agencies, the recently deceased Dzerzhinsky left behind microloan debts totaling 30,000 rubles (just over $300).

As for equipment losses, the Russian pro-war Telegram channel “Rubrika ot Ledka” («Рубрика от Ледка») counted 231 units of AFU equipment lost in April. These include 20 tanks, 22 howitzers, 47 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and 22 MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected light tactical vehicles).

In turn, the AFU’s 47th Mechanized Brigade published a tally of Russian personnel and vehicle losses, claimed by the brigade's fighters in April in the Avdiivka direction. The brigade counted 494 killed Russian soldiers and 65 destroyed vehicles, including 13 tanks, 20 IFVs, 18 armored personnel carriers (APCs), and 11 MT-LB tracked fighting vehicles.

According to calculations by the researcher Naalsio based on visual data, the Russian side lost at least 44 pieces of military equipment in the Avdiivka operational area between May 3 and May 10, while the Ukrainians lost 24. In the Krynky area on the left bank of the Dnipro River, the confirmed losses of Russian equipment for the same period amounted to 12 units. Naalsio did not record any equipment losses on the part of the AFU.

In the Kharkiv direction, as of May 13, according to Naalsio, the confirmed losses of the Russian Armed Forces amounted to 6 units of equipment, while the AFU lost 7. This ratio can be explained by reports that the Russians in this area are advancing mainly with small infantry groups, practically not using armored vehicles. However, Russian tanks were involved in the assault on Vovchansk, and Ukrainian sources report the destruction of at least one.

Russian pro-war channels noted rather high Ukrainian artillery losses in the Kharkiv Region — Voyenniy Osvedomitel (lit. “Military Informant”) counted three destroyed Ukrainian-made “Bohdana” self-propelled wheeled howitzers. Given the conditions created by the Russian offensive, Ukrainian self-propelled artillery has to constantly be on the move, exposing themselves to attacks, rather than taking cover in entrenched, camouflaged shelters, which are the AFU’s “best countermeasure” against Russian Lancet drones, as per U.S. analyst Rob Lee.

Weapons and military equipment

Significant military aid packages pledged to Ukraine this week include a shipment from Spain that will include Leopard 2A4 tanks, IFVs, SAMs and counter-air defense systems, as well as Denmark's €750 million allocation for artillery and air defense, along with F-16 fighter jets that are set to arrive at an as-yet unspecified date. Germany has also promised another IRIS-T SAM, while France has committed to providing a new batch of Aster 30 missiles for the SAMP/T system. Lithuania has supplied Ukraine with reconnaissance drones, ammunition, generators, and folding beds.

The German-led “air defense coalition” continues to take shape. Within this framework, Lithuania will supply Ukraine with six AMBER-1800 radars. The following contributions from other participants have already been confirmed:

• Germany is to transfer one battery of Patriot air defense systems;
• Belgium: €200 million;
• The Netherlands: €150 million;
• Denmark: €134 million for the purchase of a Patriot battery;
• Canada: €52 million to supply SAMs for IRIS-T air defense systems.

The U.S. is also considering transferring another battery of Patriot systems — complete with radars — to Ukraine. Apart from that, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the allocation of an additional $2 billion for Ukraine's military needs. The money allocated under the previously passed bill will be combined with remaining outlays in the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program to create a fund that will provide Ukraine with weapons, investments in the defense industrial complex, and financing for equipment purchases in other countries.

As for Moscow’s “partners,” since last September North Korea has supplied Russia with 6,700 containers of ammunition that could hold up to 3 million 152-mm artillery rounds or up to 500,000 122-mm artillery rockets, according to the assessment of the Minister of National Defense of the Republic of Korea, Shin Won-sik.

As for less obvious sources of weapons, investigations by The Insider revealed that 169 Steyr Mannlicher sniper rifles and at least 3,606 Glock pistols have been imported from Austria to Russia over the past two years. The shipments are taking place despite sanctions imposed by the European Union, of which Austria is a member state. Vienna holds a self-proclaimed “neutral” position with regards to the war in Ukraine.

The Insider has reported extensively about how the Russian defense industry is circumventing sanctions and receiving foreign military and dual-use goods:

The Ukrainian military has diversified its arsenal of drone drop ammo with Serbian M93P1 grenades for AGS-17 grenade launchers and AZB-5 incendiary aerial bombs, as well as adding anti-drone grills to Polish BRDM armored vehicles and captured Russian tanks.

The Russian Armed Forces, in turn, are expanding their use of “Tsar-Mangals” (or Turtle Tanks) and utilizing ATVs and quadbikes as platforms for mortars and anti-aircraft turrets.

Aside from the «grills», colloquially known in the West as «cope cages», Russian volunteers also appear to be relying on spiritual protection for equipment sent to the front line.