Arsenal of tyranny: an axis of dictatorships is supporting the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine

It is worth noting that the first captured samples contained Chinese shells, leading to suspicions of direct military aid from China to Russia. However, the gunpowder charges supplied with these shells were of Iranian origin, and the shell production date suggests they reached Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. Subsequently, the range of ammunition expanded to include 203 mm shells of U.S. manufacture, inherited by the Islamic Republic from the pro-Western Shah's regime and suitable for Soviet 2S7 Pion guns. Recently, supplies of 130 mm shells for the M-46 gun were also reported.

In return, Iran has reached an agreement to purchase modern Su-35 fighters and helicopters from Russia and is currently in negotiations for S-400 anti-air missile systems. This equipment will undoubtedly bolster the capabilities of the Islamic Republic amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, but the current circumstances have also raised doubts about how much hardware Tehran will be willing to part with. More advanced drones such as jet-powered Shahed-238s could be held back (even though a similar drone was once shot down over Ukraine back in January). And although Reuters reported in February that approximately 400 Iranian-made ballistic missiles had already been delivered to Russia, they have yet to be observed on the battlefield.

North Korea: Soviet shells and “Kimskanders”

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow has engaged in very limited military-technical cooperation with North Korea, partly due to the international sanctions imposed against the regime in Pyongyang. In contrast, in the 1990s South Korea received Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles as part of debt repayments. Nevertheless, relations between Moscow and Pyongyang have been relatively warm: North Korea was one of the few countries to recognize the 2014 annexation of Crimea and, in 2022, four more regions of Ukraine.

By 2023, Moscow found itself in need of more than just diplomatic aid. Russian production of artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles did not meet the demands of the front. Meanwhile, North Korea appeared to possess significant stocks of Soviet-caliber artillery shells, once presumed to be intended for wiping out Seoul in the event of renewed conflict on the Korean Peninsula. However, with the advancement of its nuclear program, Pyongyang had acquired more effective means of deterrence, reducing the need for artillery ammunition, if not entirely eliminating it. On the other hand, North Korea actively pursued the development of its missile program, with some ballistic missiles (known in the West as KN-23) demonstrating characteristics matching those of Russia’s Iskanders (at least on paper).

Massive ammunition supplies began following Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia in September 2023. According to OSINT investigators, munitions are transported by container ships from North Korean ports to Russia before being sent by rail to front-line areas. According to the South Korean Defense Ministry, a total of 67,000 containers of ammunition were delivered, a volume that could have contained up to 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or as many as 500,000 122 mm artillery rockets for the Grad MLRS.