‘The power of diplomacy can help’

What the Ukrainian foreign minister’s China visit reveals about Kyiv’s strategy for ending the war

In the last month, the Ukrainian authorities have increasingly signaled that they’re ready to hold peace talks with Russia. In a recent interview with the BBC, Volodymyr Zelensky predicted that the war’s “hot phase” could be over by the end of this year. “This doesn’t mean that all territories will be reclaimed by force. I think the power of diplomacy can help,” the Ukrainian president explained. However, he added that for Russia to begin “thinking about ending the war,” it will need to face pressure from other countries as well. One country with more leverage over Russia than most is China, where Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made his first wartime visit last week. Meduza shares key insights from an analysis of Kuleba’s trip published by the independent outlet iStories.

Contradictions

While China has officially taken a neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, there’s extensive evidence that Beijing has facilitated Russia’s invasion and helped it evade Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Kyiv has rejected China’s proposals for a peace settlement. In early 2023, Beijing presented its first peace plan, which called for a cessation of hostilities and respect for the states’ sovereignty but did not mention the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine’s occupied territories. Vladimir Putin called the proposal “realistic.”

Relations between Ukraine and China worsened when Ukraine began organizing its recent peace summit in Switzerland. Beijing declined to send a delegation to the conference, arguing that it should not be held without Russia, which wasn’t invited. Zelensky even accused China of helping Russia try to sabotage the event.

Several weeks before the conference, China and Brazil released a new peace plan that, like Beijing’s earlier one, did not mention Russia withdrawing its troops from Ukraine. China and Brazil also began calling for an international peace conference that is “recognized by both Russia and Ukraine” and includes the “equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all peace plans.”

A wartime first

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is the highest-ranking Ukrainian official to visit China since the start of the full-scale war. The key item on his agenda, a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, lasted over three hours.

After the meeting, both countries’ foreign ministries released statements that were similar, save for a few spots. According to the Chinese statement, for example, Kuleba said in the meeting that Ukraine places a high value on Beijing’s opinion about the peace process and has “carefully studied” China and Brazil’s peace plan. The Ukrainian statement, for its part, makes no mention of the peace plan but does say that Ukraine will enter into negotiations with Russia whenever Moscow is ready to engage in good faith.

Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to consider Kuleba’s trip a success, writing on Telegram: “There is a clear signal that China supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

Did Kuleba’s visit bring peace talks closer?

At the moment, Ukraine’s main task is to organize a second peace summit that includes Russia. Zelensky has said his plan for the event should be ready in November. According to Bloomberg, Ukraine wants to hold the summit before November 5, when the U.S. will hold its presidential election.

It’s important to Ukraine that the summit it organizes be the only negotiating process, according to former NATO diplomat Jamie Shea. “Involving China in the ‘Swiss process’ so that it acts as a mediator, pressures Russia, and urges it to take part in negotiations is the best option for Kyiv,” he told iStories. Shea doesn’t believe that Zelensky and Putin can hold talks any sooner because Russia’s participation in the conference and agreement on governing principles for future negotiations is a prerequisite for any peace process. Additionally, he said, an international monitoring mechanism will need to be created.

According to Umerov, Ukraine knows it can’t afford a falling out with China, and Kuleba’s trip to Beijing was an important step in maintaining relations. He noted that while Zelensky and Kuleba announced their readiness to enter negotiations with Russia, they managed to avoid giving the impression that Ukraine was conceding.

Overall, Umerov said, Kuleba’s visit brought the possibility of a conference involving both Russia and Ukraine closer to reality — but it’s still too early to make any predictions about real peace negotiations. According to him, that would require a major change on the battlefield, a drastic shift in support from Kyiv’s allies, or “something going wrong with the regime’s stability” in Russia.

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What signal is Ukraine sending Trump?

However the peace process unfolds in the coming months, its outcome with largely depend on the results of the U.S. presidential election. If Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins, Washington’s policy regarding the war is unlikely to change.

A win by Donald Trump would be a different story. The Republican former president has repeatedly promised to end the war quickly; he claimed last year that he would only need 24 hours, and he said more recently that he would broker a peace deal before his inauguration if elected.

Trump hasn’t revealed the details of his plan. But two of his advisors, Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, have written a proposal by which, according to them, the U.S. would make military aid to Ukraine contingent on Kyiv agreeing to peace talks and would threaten to increase weapons shipments if Russia didn’t agree to negotiations.

Other politicians who have experience with Trump have made varying predictions about what the plan may entail. Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Trump advisor David Urban have suggested that Trump might “re-establish peace through strength” by imposing “real” sanctions against Russia, creating a $500 billion “lend-lease” program for Ukraine, and lifting all restrictions on the types of American weapons Kyiv can use. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote that Trump could force Putin to withdraw Russian troops to Ukraine’s pre-2022 borders and recognize Ukraine’s right to join NATO.

Kuleba’s visit to China should demonstrate to Trump and his fellow Republicans that Ukraine isn’t just thinking about achieving its most ambitious goals through military means, it’s also capable of being pragmatic and is ready to negotiate, Jamie Shea told iStories. In his view, this kind of flexibility should ensure continued arms supplied from the U.S. if Trump becomes president. In return, Ukraine is counting on the U.S. not accepting Putin’s maximalist demands, which include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, guarantees that Ukraine won’t join NATO, and the lifting of sanctions on Russia.

Reporting by iStories. Abridged translation by Sam Breazeale.