The Kursk gambit

A week on, Moscow has yet to halt Kyiv’s unexpected incursion, but Russian pressure hasn’t let up on the front lines in Ukraine

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of August 14, 2024

Over the past week of fighting in the Kursk region, Russian troops have been unable to stop the Ukrainian advance. The Ukrainian brigades involved in the operation have captured the town of Sudzha, pushed west to the outskirts of Korenevo (a district center), advanced halfway to Lgov in the north, and launched a major raid eastward toward Belaya, another district center. The deepest incursion into Russian territory has reached at least 27 kilometers (about 17 miles) northward. Although the Ukrainian advance has slowed, the Russian military command will likely need to deploy additional reserves to the border if it wants to stabilize the situation quickly.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have successfully brought support units, including artillery and drone operators, into the Kursk region, enabling them to sustain their offensive. Their primary objectives are to expand their foothold, secure supply lines, and prevent Russian formations from coordinating across different fronts or receiving reinforcements. Already, Russian forces are no longer able to strike the rear of the Ukrainian group in the Kursk region with FPV drones — a weapon widely used by Russian troops.

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Kursk region, Russia

On August 11 and 12, the Ukrainian military took control of most of Sudzha, where Russian forces had managed to hold the city center for the previous five days. Ukrainian troops also captured the village of Mahnovka to the south of the city. From there, the Ukrainian command brought in reserves, likely from the 80th Air Assault Brigade, and launched a deep raid eastward. The forward elements of this formation reached the village of Giryi, halfway between Sudzha and Belaya, where they were ambushed and partially defeated. Ukrainian forces are now holding positions somewhere between Sudzha and Giryi, though the exact location of the front line remains unclear.

The AFU also pressed on with their offensive north of Sudzha but have so far been unable to break through along the Sudzha-Kursk road (where they were stopped near the village of Mahnovka) or the Sudzha-Lgov road (where they were halted near the village of Malaya Loknya). However, they’ve managed to progress toward Lgov further west, advancing toward the settlements of Kauchuk and Alekseevskii, likely aiming to clear the Sudzha-Lgov highway.

Ukrainian troops are also continuing their offensive west of Sudzha, toward the settlement of Korenevo, which has a population of 5,000 and serves as an important road junction for the entire district. By August 13, Ukrainian troops had reached the eastern outskirts of the settlement.

In the Kursk region, Russian forces are deploying significant air power, including both army aviation (helicopters and Su-25 fighter jets) and tactical aviation (Su-34 bombers). On the ground, however, their forces remain insufficient to effectively counter a large Ukrainian grouping. Troops from the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade that were deployed to the area are spread thin, operating on several fronts simultaneously. Beyond this, the only confirmed reinforcements are former Wagner Group mercenaries transferred from Belarus and “special forces” units of various affiliations. The extent to which the Russian army’s “Sever” operational group, which is responsible for the Kursk region, is involved remains unclear. Most of the group’s forces are still concentrated in the northern part of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.

Donbas, Ukraine

Russia’s 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, now tasked with holding back the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region, was previously engaged in southern Ukraine. And to reinforce the “Sever” group in the north, the Russian command had already redeployed units from the 155th Marine Brigade from the Vuhledar area. For now, no troops are being transferred from the main Russian offensive zone in central Donbas to the Kursk region. As a result, the offensive there continues, further worsening the AFU’s defense crisis with each passing day.

Russian forces have almost completely occupied the settlements to the south and southwest of Toretsk. According to Ukrainian sources, AFU units between Niu-York and Zalizne were forced to retreat toward Toretsk due to the threat of encirclement, although this hasn’t been independently confirmed. In the coming weeks, Russian troops will likely reach the outskirts of Toretsk on a broad front and begin an assault on the city. In the meantime, they’re focused on capturing the spoil tips of several mines that lie between Toretsk and its surrounding settlements.

Fifty kilometers (31 miles) west of Toretsk, Russian forces are nearing Pokrovsk, a critical hub for Ukrainian military communications. They’ve captured the villages of Ivanivka and Lysychne and reached the eastern outskirts of the village of Hrodivka, which shields Pokrovsk and the nearby city of Myrnohrad.

If the offensive continues at its current pace, the battle for Pokrovsk could begin as early as the fall. Without reinforcements, the Ukrainian command may have to rely on the hope that the situation near Kursk will compel Russia to divert troops away from Pokrovsk and Toretsk toward the border. However, the chances of this seem slim, as the Russian command still has combat-ready units on other, relatively quiet fronts.

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