Kursk residents report over 400 civilians missing amid Ukrainian incursion

According to an analysis of social media data, Novaya Gazeta Europe has determined that at least 444 residents of Russia’s Kursk region have gone missing since the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) began their incursion into Russian territory on 7 August.

On Monday, acting Kursk Governor Alexey Smirnov reported that 2,000 residents of the region were unaccounted for. The next day, Liza Alert, a Russian nonprofit that looks for missing persons, reported 338 missing persons reports of which 38 have been resolved, with the individuals found alive.

Everyday on social media, Kursk residents post dozens of notices seeking help to find their relatives. Novaya Europe compiled these posts and estimates that at least 444 people are missing. This figure represents a lower boundary, as not everyone has taken to social media to report their friends and family members missing. On Wednesday, the regional government press service “strongly advised” Kursk residents not to publish missing people’s personal data online.

Our methodology

Using VK and Telegram API, Novaya Europe was able to download posts and comments from popular blogs and channels in the region, as well as announcements in the Liza Alert group, from 6-14 August. Posts were filtered using keywords to narrow the search to only those referring to missing persons. With the help of ChatGPT-4, full names were collected along with the birth dates and ages of the individuals. Posts referring to the same people were ruled out.

The age or date of birth of the missing persons was mentioned in 66% of the posts. Most of those reported missing are elderly individuals with limited mobility, including 155 people aged 65 and over. According to Liza Alert, the oldest missing person is 101 years old, while 13 missing people under the age of 18 have also been reported.

“Help find my grandmother,” one resident wrote. “During the AFU shelling, she stayed in her house and refused to leave. She might have been taken away by someone. Please help us find out anything about her.”

While evacuation measures have been announced in six Kursk districts, many residents have evacuated independently. One Belgorod resident, according to his relatives, tried to escape with his disabled brother on the second day of the incursion, but hasn’t been heard from since.