High risk, high reward

As Ukraine pushes forward in Russia’s Kursk region, the outcome will depend on what forces can be spared from other fronts

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of August 17, 2024

By the end of its second week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) advance in Russia’s Kursk region had slowed but not stopped. The Russian command transferred reserve forces to the area to block Ukrainian troops from advancing along the main roads; Ukraine is now trying to attack these barriers from the flanks. Ukraine’s command also continued bringing in reserves from across the border. Based on the available information about the units involved, at least some troops from all of the reserve brigades that the AFU managed to build up over the summer have been sent to the Kursk region. Even some units from brigades that were actively fighting on the front, rather than preparing for an offensive in the rear, have been moved to the Kursk front.

These decisions likely indicate that Ukraine’s command considers the northern border to be its main operational direction and isn’t planning any major attacks on other parts of the front. If this is the case, the operation’s main goal is simple: keep the pressure up until Russia ends its offensive in the Donbas and transfers those troops to Kursk. So far, however, this hasn’t happened — on the contrary, Russia’s offensive in the central part of the Donbas has only intensified.

The Kursk front

Update: On August 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukrainian troops currently control 1,250 square kilometers (482 square miles) of Russian territory, including 92 Russian settlements. On Sunday, Zelensky said that the goal of Ukraine’s incursion is to create a “buffer zone” to support its overall goal of “destroying as much Russian war potential as possible.” Meduza’s analysts estimate that Ukraine controls about 862 square kilometers (333 square miles) encompassing 65 settlements. This estimate is based on photos and videos shared by eyewitnesses.

In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces managed to set up roadblocks and ambushes along the main roads leading from the Ukrainian-controlled town of Sudzha to the west, east, and north using units from the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade.

• Russian forces blocked the Sudzha-Kursk highway near the village of Martynovka, which Russia managed to recapture from Ukrainian mobile infantry groups at the beginning of the incursion. After taking the eastern part of Sudzha, the AFU has been trying to bypass Russia’s positions near Martynovka from the east. As of the evening of August 16, they hadn’t succeeded.
• Russia blocked the Sudzha-Lgov road near the village of Malaya Loknya. However, the AFU managed to bypass this obstacle by traveling off-road between Sudzha and the village of Korenevo (though they were unable to enter Korenevo itself). Russian forces halted the Ukrainian armored groups’ advance near Safonovka, about 15 kilometers (nine miles) from the Lgov-Rylsk road, which Russia uses to supply all its forces in the border areas west of Sudzha. If the AFU can cut off this supply line, it could weaken Russia’s defenses from Rylsk to Korenevo.
• Ukrainian forces are trying to break through Russia’s blockade at Malaya Loknya from the west and then advance further to Kromskiye Byki in order to ultimately advance along the Sudzha-Lgov highway.
• The AFU is already trying to break through along the border west of Sudzha to expand its bridgehead and gain control of additional roads to use as supply lines. Ukrainian units here have captured the village of Vnezapnoye to the south of Korenevo and tried to advance towards the village of Glushkovo and the border crossing at neighboring Tetkino.
• Ukraine planned another attack to the east of Sudzha with the aim of expanding its bridgehead and creating a secure flank to advance towards the town of Lgov. However, Ukrainian forces failed to break through to the district center of Belaya and suffered manpower and equipment losses. Instead, it took up defensive positions around the Psel River near the villages of Spalnoye and Kamyshnoye.

Moving forward, the dynamic of the operation will depend on what reserves both sides determine are feasible to transfer to the Kursk front. The Russian command will likely be reluctant to pull troops from the central Donbas front (around Pokrovsk and Toretsk) unless absolutely necessary.

Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and we are committed to reporting objectively on a war we firmly oppose. Join Meduza in its mission to challenge the Kremlin’s censorship with the truth. Donate today.

It’s also likely that both armies will tap troops currently deployed on the Kharkiv front. The AFU has already moved part of the 92nd Assault Brigade, which was previously focused on liberating the village of Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv. After the 92nd Brigade left the area, Russian troops immediately launched an offensive east of Hlyboke.

At the same time, it’s likely that Russia will transfer its main striking force in the area, the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, out of Hlyboke. Units of this brigade have already been deployed along the Russia-Ukraine border in Russia’s Belgorod region; other units will likely be sent to the Sudzha front.

The Pokrovsk and Toretsk area

• Russian troops advanced several more kilometers towards the city of Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine’s main logistics hubs in Donbas, and the nearby town of Selydove, which plays an important role in supplying the AFU in the southern part of the Donetsk region.
• Fighting is ongoing in Hrodivka, a village that directly shields Pokrovsk, and in the outskirts of Novohrodivka, which covers Selydove.

• The growing pace of Russia’s offensive in recent weeks shows that Ukraine’s defenses here are severely depleted.
• The loss of Pokrovsk and Selydove would cut off Ukraine’s forces in this area from supplies coming from the AFU’s main base in the east: Dnipro.
• In the Toretsk agglomeration, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) east of Pokrovsk, Russian troops are approaching the outskirts of the town of Toretsk, having captured nearly all of its neighboring villages. Pockets of resistance remain in Niu-York (near the Phenol Plant) and in the village of Pivnichne (around the Pivnichne mine waste dump).

Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!