Russia now has Iranian missiles. Here’s what that could mean for Ukraine.

On September 10, Washington confirmed that Iran had transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. With more weapons suited for hitting closer targets, Moscow can now conserve its longer-range missiles for deeper strikes into Ukrainian territory. And Western officials don’t expect this shipment to be the last. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East could push Tehran to prioritize keeping its arsenal at home. Journalists from the independent outlet iStories investigated the types of weapons Iran is sending to Russia and their potential impact on the war in Ukraine. Meduza shares an abridged English-language version of their reporting.

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In early September, The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. and European officials, reported that Iran had delivered around 200 ballistic missiles to Russia. One official warned that this shipment likely wouldn’t be the last.

According to the Financial Times, the missiles — Fath-360s with a range of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) — were transported via the Caspian Sea. Sky News published a photo of a Russian ship said to have delivered the missiles to Port Olya, near the city of Astrakhan, on September 4. The ship traveled from Iran with its transponder switched off, concealing its movements.

On September 10, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Russia had received Iranian Fath-360 missiles, estimating that Moscow could begin using them in Ukraine within weeks. Dozens of Russian soldiers have already undergone training in Iran.

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Along with the missiles, Russia will also require Iranian launchers, explains Fabian Hinz, a missile and drone expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The Russian military currently lacks launchers compatible with the Fath-360. In Iran, these systems are often mounted on commercial trucks, and they could be transported to Russia via large cargo planes or by sea.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has denied sending missiles to Russia. However, Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani acknowledged the shipments, stating: “We have to barter for our needs, including importing soybeans and wheat. Part of the barter involves sending missiles, and another part involves sending military drones to Russia.”

No adequate defense

The Fath-360 has a range similar to Russia’s S-300 surface-to-air missiles, which the Russian military has used to target Ukrainian front-line and border cities such as Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, and Kostiantynivka, as well as military installations. When striking ground positions, both the S-300 and Fath-360 follow a ballistic trajectory.

Russia also deploys Iskander-M ballistic missiles against targets within the S-300’s range. The Iskander-M is more accurate and has a maximum range of about 500 kilometers (311 miles). With the addition of Fath-360s, Moscow can now conserve its Iskander-M missiles for long-range strikes. Iranian short-range ballistic missiles are known for their precision, and the Fath-360 is no exception, according to IISS’s Fabian Hinz. The missile is equipped with satellite navigation and is likely outfitted with electronic warfare countermeasures. Ukrainian military expert and Reserve Major Oleksiy Hetman believes the Fath-360 is more accurate than Russia’s S-300.

Saving Iskander-M missiles for deeper strikes into Ukraine is likely a critical issue for the Russian military. Ukrainian military estimates suggest that as of May, Russia had around 200 Iskander-M missiles and was producing about 40 per month. Russia’s acquisition of Hwasong-11 missiles from North Korea, which started last year, also hints at a potential shortage. The Hwasong-11, a close equivalent to the Iskander-M, has been in use by Russian forces since December, although the Ukrainian authorities report that about half of these missiles prematurely detonate mid-air. This summer, Russia used at least one North Korean missile manufactured in 2024, indicating that supplies from Pyongyang are ongoing, according to the U.K.-based investigative group Conflict Armament Research.

The effectiveness of the Fath-360 will largely depend on how well operators can coordinate with intelligence units, as real-time target data will be crucial for swift strikes. But while Iranian missiles don’t introduce entirely new capabilities to Russia’s arsenal, their sheer numbers could still play a significant role in the conflict, Hinz notes.

There’s little hope that Ukraine’s air defenses will be able to intercept a significant number of Fath-360s. The country lacks sufficient systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, and deploying them within the Fath-360’s range is extremely risky. Since the full-scale invasion began, Ukrainian forces have managed to shoot down only 19 of the 3,000 S-300 and S-400 missiles fired by Russia, according to an August report from Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Iran’s arsenal

The Iranian military has both cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges spanning several hundred to several thousand kilometers, according to reports from Western analysts published in 2024. However, reliable and up-to-date information about the exact number of missiles or Iran’s production capabilities remains elusive.

In 2022, U.S. General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. stated that Iran had approximately 3,000 ballistic missiles and had been heavily investing in their development for the previous five to seven years. Production has certainly increased since then, but it’s unclear exactly how many missiles Iran can produce monthly or annually, says Fabian Hinz from IISS.

Iran’s ballistic missiles can be broadly divided into two categories. The first includes expensive, difficult-to-produce munitions with ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), capable of reaching Israel. In April 2024, Iran launched around 120 such missiles in a large-scale strike on Israel. In August, Israeli and Western officials expected another round of strikes in retaliation for the killings of a Hezbollah commander and the head of Hamas’s political bureau, though this hasn’t happened yet.

If Iran continues or expands its missile shipments to Russia, Moscow is likely to receive mostly short-range munitions. In addition to the Fath-360, Iran has missiles with ranges of 300, 500, 700, and around 1,000 kilometers. Tehran has used some of these missiles to target Islamic State positions in Syria and U.S. military bases in Qatar and the UAE. While some missed their targets, Hinz notes that overall, their accuracy is high.

Still, Iran may hesitate to part with even small quantities of these missiles. With the rising threat of a major conflict in the Middle East, Iran needs to maintain a stockpile of ballistic missiles for potential strikes on U.S. military bases. To hit targets in Kuwait and Qatar, Tehran would require missiles with ranges of at least 300 kilometers, and for the UAE, a minimum of 500 kilometers.

Reports of Iranian missile shipments to Russia first surfaced in Western media in February. At the time, there were speculations that Iran had sent Moscow Fateh-100 ballistic missiles (with a range of up to 300 kilometers) and Zolfaghar missiles (up to 700 kilometers). However, no confirmed evidence of their use in Ukraine has emerged so far. Hinz suggests that Iran’s decision to supply shorter-range munitions to Russia is tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East and its own growing military needs.

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In response to Iran’s missile deliveries to Russia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the transfer a “sharp escalation,” while the U.K., Germany, and France issued a joint statement describing it as a “direct threat to European security.”

On September 11, just a day after the U.S. officially confirmed the missile deliveries, Blinken and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. Ukraine’s top priority is lifting restrictions on the use of long-range Western weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. According to Bloomberg, Zelensky presented a plan outlining these strikes over the coming months.

After Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the U.S. authorized Ukraine to use Western weapons against military targets in Russian border areas. Now, according to Politico, the White House is close to expanding the permitted strike zone.