The hijacking of Europa. Cutting ties with EU, Georgia's ruling party sees its ratings plummet but remains ahead of opposition
However, Giorgi Gobronidze of the International Black Sea University (IBSU) believes that the failure to unite harms the opposition:
“Opinion polls suggest the opposition can count on 60% of the votes. But how would it get them? In fragments. [Opposition politicians] will not and cannot form a government. They are so consumed by their ambitions that they cannot unite for the common good — not even temporarily. [They say] ‘I'm not going to stand by his side. I'm not talking to him. I will not cooperate with him.’”
A non-obvious arrangement
According to Edison Research, Georgian Dream will get 32.3% of the vote — the lowest result since its foundation. However, “Dreamers” have dismissed the Edison polls commissioned by the opposition channel Formula. They publish their own forecasts via the pro-government TV channel Imedi, arguing they will win roughly 60% — and a constitutional majority in parliament.
Political analyst Paata Zakareishvili does not rule out the possibility that Georgian Dream will end up being forced into a coalition with some of the opposition if its result falls short of a simple majority. However, it has an alternative option: “If no one colludes with [Georgian Dream], and [if] the four [opposition blocs] form a united front, they have a chance to turn Georgian Dream into a minority and take control.”
As Zakareishvili explains, the unity of the opposition depends on Unity to Save Georgia:
“The opposition has a different problem: Saakashvili's [United] National Movement with its big ambitions. It will get the most votes. ...They might say: ‘We are in charge here; we will dictate terms’ — and then no one will want to join them. In such an event, the parliament could collapse, necessitating early elections. And then Georgian Dream will definitely win.”
If the UNM's conditions are unacceptable to other parties, Zakareishvili believes this may force some of the opposition to enter into a coalition with Georgian Dream — provided, however, that Ivanishvili's party makes concessions and resumes negotiation on Georgia’s integration with the EU.
Ivanishvili is looking for convenient enemies
In its election campaign, Georgian Dream is betting on two major themes. Firstly, the ruling party is trying to capitalize on its purported success in preventing Georgia from being dragged into the war between Russia and Ukraine. In its campaign narrative, Georgian Dream makes use of posters that contrast photographs of destroyed Ukrainian cities with shots of peaceful Georgia. Secondly, they promise to resume negotiations on the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia.
“We will definitely find the strength to apologize for the fact that following the received assignment, the treacherous National Movement shrouded our Ossetian sisters and brothers in flames of fire in 2008,” Georgian Dream honorary chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili said on Sep. 15 during an election rally in Gori, the city that suffered the most during the 2008 war with Russia. This is not the first time Ivanishvili has accused the United National Movement and former president Mikheil Saakashvili of unleashing a war that neither Georgians nor Ossetians needed. Now the de facto leader of Georgian Dream assures the population that his party does not seek a constitutional majority in order to hold onto power, but rather to pass amendments on the country’s territorial integrity. According to Ivanishvili, Tbilisi should assume a “firm but appropriate position towards Russia” if it is to restore Georgia's territorial integrity in the future. However, recent statistics suggest that 85% of Georgians are reluctant to apologize to Ossetians.
Moreover, even in Russia, not everyone believes that “amendments” coupled with an “appropriate position” would do the trick of restoring Georgian control over its internationally recognized borders. Thus, Konstantin Zatulin, first deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Commonwealth of Independent State Affairs, said that Ivanishvili could hope to convince only the domestic audience, not Russia: “This ship sailed a long time ago. There will be no return of Abkhazia or South Ossetia to Georgia.” However, at the official level, Moscow is perceived as pushing the Georgian authorities to take steps in this direction.
For instance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has hinted publicly at the possibility of an agreement: “It's obvious that the current Georgian leadership is giving an honest assessment of the past. They even said as much: that they ‘want historical reconciliation.’ It is up to the countries themselves — both Abkhazia and South Ossetia — to decide what form this reconciliation can take.”
In general, Georgian Dream’s campaign is built on the humiliation of opponents, who are labeled as traitors and renegades. Ivanishvili’s nemesis is, of course, the imprisoned ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. It was amidst a confrontation with Saakashvili that Georgian Dream came to power 12 years ago. Ahead of the 2024 elections, if one were to believe the ruling party's statements rather than the objective reality that Saakashvili’s side has been out of power for more than a decade, the opponent has only grown in strength. Ivanishvili's “list of traitors” includes all opponents of the current Georgian government, even non-profit organizations, which he targets using the notorious Georgian version of the Russian “foreign agent” law.