Polarization in Europe: Right- and left-wing radicals are gaining ground across the EU

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party has won the country’s recent parliamentary elections, reigniting debates about the rise of right-wing populists across Europe. However, survey data and election results from various continental European countries show that left-wing radicals are also experiencing a significant surge. These data suggest that Europe is not merely shifting to the right, but undergoing a broader political polarization. The driving force behind this trend seems to be socio-economic issues, including a wave of inflation that has hit the middle class hard.

Austria's search for stability

The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) won the country’s recent parliamentary elections, as was expected, securing 29.2% of the vote, according to preliminary data from the Austrian Ministry of the Interior. The party, which has made immigration its central campaign theme, is still waiting for the final count, as many Austrians vote by mail. This process has sparked controversy in the past, as late-arriving ballots have sometimes significantly altered election results — often to the detriment of the far-right. However, this time, the Freedom Party’s lead over the ruling center-right People’s Party (26.5%) is more than 2.5%, a margin that the remaining votes are unlikely to close.

Despite this clear victory, the Freedom Party has little chance of forming a government. All other parties, including the People’s Party — despite its previous coalition with the FPÖ — are currently refusing to cooperate with the winner. Additionally, President Alexander Van der Bellen, who has Russian roots, has made it clear that he will not nominate the FPÖ’s leader, Herbert Kickl, a pro-Russian hardliner, for the position of prime minister. It is more likely that a coalition of centrist parties, both left- and right-leaning, will take power, leaving the Freedom Party in the opposition — this despite a clear anti-immigration sentiment among Austrian voters.

The Austrian far-right has little chance of forming a government

At the same time, a new trend is emerging in Austria: rising demand for radical left-wing politics. For the first time in decades, the long-forgotten local Communist Party came close to passing the parliamentary threshold. It has focused on addressing real social issues, such as housing policy, and it is gaining traction in urban areas. In 2023, the party performed well in regional elections in Salzburg, achieved solid results in Vienna, and since 2021, the mayor of Graz has been a member of the Communist Party. This suggests that the Communists could strengthen their position even further in time for the next elections, especially if they start appealing to current far-right voters, as is happening in France and Germany.

France riding a left-wing wave

The approval rating of French President Emmanuel Macron has recently dropped to its lowest level of his seven years in office. According to a poll by Odoxa, only 25% of the French public are satisfied with his performance. Moreover, 59% believe that Macron’s newly appointed prime minister, Michel Barnier, will be a “poor” head of government.

In Austria, mainstream politicians are struggling to keep the far-right out of power. But in France, following the snap elections in June, Macron found himself up against the far-left. The New Popular Front, a coalition of diverse parties that includes the Socialists, took first place. Leading the coalition and securing the majority of the left-wing seats in parliament was Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his far-left party, La France Insoumise (“Unsubmissive France”).

Although Macron’s political maneuvering has thus far succeeded in keeping Mélenchon and his allies out of government, the French left is gaining momentum by focusing on social issues such as utility prices, pensions, food costs, and education. They are steadily reclaiming voters who had previously shifted to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

Not long ago, the biggest concern for centrists in France was the potential victory of the far-right’s young new leader Jordan Bardella in the 2027 presidential elections. Now, however, the question of the day is which radical left-wing candidate will make a serious run for the presidency. Mélenchon performed quite well in the last presidential race, but it is likely that this time the candidate will be younger — and possibly even more radical.

German Greens losing ground to left-wing radicals

The political landscape in Germany and the Czech Republic also indicates a shift to the left. Almost simultaneously, the leaders of Germany’s Green Party and the Czech Pirate Party announced their resignations. In Germany, the Greens’ official reason for stepping down was their crushing defeat in the Sept. 22 regional elections in Brandenburg, where they secured only 4.1% of the vote, failing to enter the regional parliament (Landtag).

In reality, however, change at the top is likely due to the fact that the rating of the Alliance 90/The Greens, a la Macron's situation in France, has dropped to its lowest level in seven years, and is currently hovering around 9.5% nationwide. This puts them behind the newly established left-wing and pro-Russian Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which was formed just this year. In Brandenburg, Wagenknecht's party managed to capture 13.5% of the vote.

A similar scenario played out in the Czech Republic in the latter half of 2024. Following disappointing results in regional elections and senatorial by-elections, the Pirate Party's leadership stepped down. The Pirates, much like Germany’s Greens, had positioned themselves as champions of progressive environmental policies, marriage equality, LGBTQ rights, and stricter penalties for domestic violence.

At the same time, the popularity of local communists and their allies surged following the European Parliament elections. They have coalesced into the Stačilo bloc, led by the Czech equivalent of Wagenknecht — Kateřina Konečná. Like her German counterpart and Mélenchon, the Czech communist opposes active military support for Ukraine and favors a potential normalization of relations with Russia. However, her campaign remains focused on social issues, such as high levels of household debt and problems with utility bills, access to housing, and pensions.

Radicalization fueled by inflation

In both the Czech Republic and Germany, the next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2025 — unless the current governing coalitions collapse before then, triggering snap elections. The newly emerging left-wing movements, which combine anti-immigration rhetoric with pro-Russian sentiments, appear to have a strong chance of success. It seems that radical leftists, who had largely vanished from the political landscape over the past two decades, are making a comeback in many European countries.

Left-wing radicals are making a comeback into mainstream politics across Europe

However, their platforms have shifted significantly, and in some cases, their stance on immigration sounds almost identical to that of the far-right. Support for such parties is growing among the European lower-middle class, which has been hit hard by economic and social upheavals over the past five years. Key factors include a sharp rise in utility costs following the breakdown of energy ties with Russia, record-high inflation for the EU, and increasing food prices. These issues were aggravated by the policies put in place in many EU countries to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus, by global food price spikes caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, by the recent conflict in the Middle East, and by ongoing climate disruptions.

In Germany, the number of family-owned businesses is noticeably shrinking, and bankruptcies are rising. In the Czech Republic, a similar pattern is emerging, with more bankruptcies being declared and fewer small businesses opening up. Politicians have been quick to exploit these vulnerabilities. As a result, by the 2025–2027 election cycle, the narrative may shift away from fears of a right-wing bump to a growing concern over a left-wing resurgence. This new leftward shift could prove more stable and enduring than the rightward shift did, as its root causes are unlikely to be resolved quickly — if EU countries can even address them at all in the foreseeable future.

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