Dream gone bad: Ivanishvili's doubtful victory may plunge Georgia into authoritarianism and repression

The outcome of the “existential” election, in which Georgia was effectively choosing between Europe and Russia, remained uncertain until the results were in. Opinion polls yielded conflicting predictions, and many Georgians did not know until the last minute who they would vote for. One thing was clear: the ruling party would lose in the 67 overseas polling stations — and indeed, Georgian Dream scored an average of just 15% among citizens in the diaspora. At the same time, neither the authorities nor the opposition so much as entertained the possibility of losing.

In the week preceding the elections, Tbilisi saw two major rallies. On Oct. 20, opposition-minded citizens led by President Salome Zourabichvili came to Freedom Square. Then, on Oct. 23, the government gathered its supporters from all over the country to listen to the leader of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, who despite being outwardly confident in the people's support has recently been speaking at public events from behind bulletproof glass.

Ivanishvili, who is convinced that the success of his party largely depends on voters' attitude towards him personally, gave an interview on the government-controlled Imedi channel a few days before the elections. Aside from pledging to ban the opposition after the elections and scaring the audience with war, he unexpectedly spoke at length about another threat to Georgia — LGBT propaganda. According to Ivanishvili, this threat is the reason why, in Western countries, one can no longer call a man a man and a woman a woman. The party leader, a recipient of the French Legion of Honor, also claimed that, in Europe, orgies are taking place in the streets, and people say that “men's milk is the same as women's milk.”

However, voters' preferences were not as critical to the outcome as their level of motivation. Even if most Georgians indicated in opinion polls that they do not support Georgian Dream, the ruling party’s capacity to turn out its electorate was superior. “Opinion polls showed that Georgian Dream supporters are more mobilized. Meanwhile, many opposition supporters are not sure whether they will go to the elections or not. Therefore, a high level of voter turnout was very important,” Ghia Nodia, a political scientist and director of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, explained to The Insider.

Demographics also played a role. For example, young people, many of whom never made it to a polling station, are 2-2.5 times less likely than their elders to support the ruling party, according to Caucasus Barometer. Still, support for European integration among young people is only about 10% higher than the national average, and Georgian Dream’s repeated calls to prevent war with Russia could have had a higher impact on young people, as sociology shows that the younger generation is more afraid of war than the older one.