Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Russian Armed Forces slow down in Ukraine, AFU “pocket” near Kurakhove eliminated, new ATACMS strike

The AFU Air Force Command reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) intercepting 133 drones, including Shahed-type UAVs, out of the 318 that Russia launched during the week (another 175 were radar lost under the influence of electronic warfare tools or turned out to be decoys). Ukraine also reported intercepting 85 out of 100 Russian missiles of various types. No UAV raids were reported from Dec. 10 to Dec. 12, but yet another massive missile and drone strike on Ukrainian energy facilities took place on the night and morning of Dec. 13. A number of heat and power generation facilities were seriously damaged, according to the Ukrainian DTEK Group. The Russian Ministry of Defense admitted to the attack on civilian infrastructure and declared it a retaliatory strike in response to Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles against targets on Russian territory.

In November 2024, the Russian Air Force dropped 20% fewer FAB aerial bombs with UMPK guidance kits on Ukrainian territory than in the previous month. While the authorization to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG missiles on Russia's internationally recognized territories may have accounted for some of the decline in the use of aerial bombs, another likely explanation is unfavorable weather conditions.

The following Russian strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure were reported during the week:

• On Dec. 10, missile attacks on the town of Zlatopil in the Lozova District of the Kharkiv Region injured at least 11 people (1, 2, 3, 4).
• On the same day, a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia destroyed a private clinic, killed 11 people, and injured another 22.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, in turn, reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the destruction of 108 fixed-wing drones over the territory of Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian strikes are known to have successfully hit the following targets:

• Natural gas platforms in the Black Sea with the first known use of sea drones as carriers of FPV drones
• A munitions warehouse in occupied Yenakiieve in the Donetsk Region
• A fuel and energy complex facility in Bryansk Region
• An aircraft repair plant and military airfield in Taganrog — after a long break, the strike was carried out by U.S. ATACMS missiles, killing one Russian serviceman and injuring a total of 41 (1, 2).
• The barracks of the Akhmat Kadyrov special police regiment in Grozny, Chechnya.

The Insider also published a column by Fabian Hoffman, a nuclear and missile security researcher at the University of Oslo, about Russia's launch of an Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile in late November against the city of Dnipro. According to Hoffman's assessment, the use of Oreshnik will not affect the course of the war in Ukraine, but will nevertheless force the West to rethink its missile defense strategy.