Defense Minister Andrei Belousov Said That in 2024, More Than 427 Thousand People Were Recruited for a Contract. Is This True?

At a meeting of the board of the Ministry of Defense, the head of the department Andrei Belousov said that in 2024, more than 427 thousand people signed a contract to serve in the Russian army. Here is IStories’ explanation why this number may be overstated.

The number of new contractors can be estimated with the help of data on federal budget expenditures on a one-time payment upon signing a contract. They show that between 215,700 and 249,000 people signed a contract in the first three quarters of 2024. The difference in estimates is due to the fact that since August Vladimir Putin raised the payment from 195 to 400 thousand rubles, so it is difficult to calculate the exact number of those who signed a contract in July-September.

The data for the last quarter have not been published yet. However, if Belousov’s words are to be believed, then at least 178 thousand people should have signed the contract in 2.5 months.

This is unlikely: pay data show that already in Q3 2024, the rate of contractors’ recruitment had declined compared to Q2. Even with the increase in the federal bonus, an average of 540–900 people per day were signing a contract, and to reach the figures stated by Belousov, the rate would have to exceed 2,300 new contractors every day since October. This rate of recruitment was not even seen in Q4 2023, when the number of contractors recruited was the highest during the war.

Probably the number of contract sign-ups in Q4 2024 will still be higher than in Q3 as the bonus could be transferred late and close out accumulated obligations by the end of the year. Also, the pay raise may indeed have led to an increase in those willing to sign a contract, but for Belousov’s figures to be credible, the rate of recruitment would still have to exceed that of the same period last year. There is no data to confirm this yet.

Previously IStories reported that the Defense Ministry may overestimate the number of contract workers recruited by one and a half times.

The race for payments to attract people to the war with Ukraine continues: the average bonus for signing a contract from regional authorities has increased more than fivefold over the year, together with the federal payment, new contract workers receive an average of 1.3 million rubles one-time payment