The daily grind

Military experts say Russia is likely to seize another key stronghold in eastern Ukraine

The situation on the frontline in eastern Ukraine is becoming even more dire as Russia’s ongoing advance in Donbas may lead to Ukraine abandoning an important logistical hub in the region.

On Saturday, Russian servicemen reportedly raised the Russian flag on the council building in Kurakhove, a key Ukrainian stronghold in the partially occupied Donetsk region with a pre-war population of 18,000, with footage showing two soldiers entering the building and hanging the flag from a first-floor window.

According to Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, Russia has occupied over half of Kurakhove, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) remain in control of the industrial zone at the Kurakhove power plant and the pipe factory in the west of the town.

While the capture of the town has not been confirmed by official sources, Russian pro-war bloggers are already celebrating victory. “The enemy admits it has completely lost one high-rise district in Kurakhove,” pro-war Telegram channel Dva Mayora wrote, adding that “most of the town” was under the control of the Russian military as of Monday morning.

“It is clear that the days of Kurakhove’s defence are numbered.”

BBC News Russian reported on Monday that Russian units were tightening the noose around the whole area, having taken several villages near Kurakhove and cut offone of the roads connecting the nearby village of Velyka Novosilka to the Ukrainian rear.

The General Staff of the AFU said Kurakhove was one of the “hottest spots” on the frontline, insisting on Tuesday that the battle for the town was ongoing despite Russian troops having “a significant advantage in terms of personnel and equipment”.

But as Russian troops continue their advance, experts fear that the Ukrainian group of troops near Kurakhove is in danger of being surrounded.

Should Kurakhove be captured by the Russians, it will make the situation on the frontline in Donbas even more difficult, as most AFU logistics went through the town, Russian military expert Alexey Kuznetsov* told Novaya Gazeta Europe.

“It looks like the Ukrainians will still cling to the industrial zone near the Kurakhove reservoir. But it is clear that the days of Kurakhove’s defence are numbered,” Kuznetsov said.

According to Kuznetsov, Russian troops are now just three kilometres from the highway connecting Kurakhove and the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, and if they manage to cut the road off, the remaining Ukrainian units in Kurakhove would have to “either break through or surrender”.

Reserve AFU colonel and military expert Roman Svitan agreed that holding on to the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway was crucial for the Ukrainian units deployed in the area. “The Ukrainians can stay in the industrial zone of the Kurakhove power plant while they can still be supplied with ammunition, food and everything they need,” Svitan explained.

If Kurakhove is captured, the AFU’s defence in the Pokrovsk area will deteriorate markedly.

“Unfortunately, Kurakhove’s capture will be complete within a matter of weeks,” military researcher Kirill Mikhailov told Novaya Europe, adding that after the town is captured fully, the Russian forces engaged there could move to Pokrovsk, another key town in the Donetsk region, and eventually move on to central Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region.

If Kurakhove is captured, the AFU’s defence in the Pokrovsk area will deteriorate markedly, Svitan admitted, adding that the Russians’ objective in the coming months would be to reach the borders of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

So far, the main battles are occurring around a triangle connecting Kurakhove, Pokrovsk and the village of Velyka Novosilka, with the front stretching over dozens of kilometres, Svitan added. “If Russian troops can take Kurakhove and straighten out the front line, its length will decrease significantly while the density of Russian units will increase significantly. That will allow them to continue to advance.”

Meanwhile, urban battles continued in the Donetsk region towns of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, where Russians had made a little progress, Svitan said. Still, these street battles “could last for years”, Svitan predicted, as Russian troops had got stuck in a dense urban area in Chasiv Yar, while the Toretsk garrison had been holding off enemy attacks for months.

In another hotspot, the town of Kupiansk in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region, the AFU “isn’t just holding off Russian troops, but carrying out effective counterattacks”, Svitan continued.

But Kuznetsov noted that the situation around Kupiansk is “not ideal” for the AFU, as Russian troops managed to cross the Oskil River and occupy a significant bridgehead on the right bank, which will allow them to attack the city from both sides.

While Russia has continued to grind its way deeper into eastern Ukraine, it has come at an enormous cost, with Zelensky saying last week that Russia had lost “record” numbers of its troops in Donbas over the past two months, and UK intelligence reporting earlier this month that Russia had lost up to 2,000 troops a day in November.

The US-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, estimated in November that Russian forces had lost at least five divisions’ worth of armoured vehicles and tanks in the area of Pokrovsk alone since October 2023, while advancing about 40 km over the course of a year.

And despite Vladimir Putin’s recent claims that “over 1,000 men and women” are signing up to the army every day, it is unclear how long Russia can sustain this enormous casualty count to continue its advance.

*Not his real name.