“There is actually something of a construction boom happening in the annexed regions, and by our estimates, at least 300,000 people have already returned to Mariupol, and the population continues to grow rapidly.”This figure is highly unlikely to reflect reality. Official Ukrainian data puts Mariupol’s pre-war population in January 2022 at 425,000, while Mariupol’s legitimate Ukrainian mayor, Vadym Boychenko, previously stated the city had 540,000 residents before the war.
Just a month into Russia’s full-scale invasion, however, Boychenko estimated 50% of the population had already fled. By mid-May 2022, Human Rights Watch reported 400,000 residents had escaped, and that thousands of civilians had been killed.
In November 2024, Ukrainian lawmaker Maksym Tkachenko of the Servant of the People party claimed that around 150,000 people — a third of those who fled — had returned to the occupied territories, including about 70,000 to Mariupol. This sparked backlash from Ukraine’s presidential office, leading Tkachenko to retract his statement.
A 2023 survey conducted at the Latvia-Russia border by the International Organization for Migration found that 49% of Ukrainians entering Russia from the EU intended to return to Ukraine, including to its occupied territories. Russian authorities, meanwhile, claimed in October 2024 that 107,000 Ukrainians had attempted to enter Russia via Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport, but only 83,000 were allowed in. The Russian claim was made without specifying the time frame in question or how many of the Ukrainians who had been allowed into Russia traveled on to the occupied areas.