Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: North Korean troops storm Ukrainian positions in Kursk, Russia attempts to create a “pocket” in Kurakhove

The following strikes on civilian infrastructure by Russian forces were reported:

Dec. 16: Two people were killed in a strike on Kupiansk (1, 2). Preliminary data from the prosecutor's office suggest the attack was carried out using Uragan MLRS.
Dec. 19: Kryvyi Rih was hit by a ballistic missile, damaging a two-story residential building. Another 20 buildings and the same number of cars were damaged. Six people were injured, with no fatalities.
Dec. 20: Indiscriminate strikes on Kherson damaged residential buildings and critical infrastructure. One person was killed, nine were injured, and power supply to 60,000 residents was temporarily disrupted.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the destruction of 177 Ukrainian drones and 10 missiles of various types out of 11 launched during overnight raids. One missile was reportedly deflected by electronic warfare (1, 2).

The independent publication Verstka has used Russian Ministry of Defense data (noting that the figures are incomplete) to calculate that more than 7,339 Ukrainian drones were launched across 32 Russian regions between January 1 and December 10, 2024.

The following strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian military and infrastructure targets were reported over the past week:

Russian authorities and representatives of Moscow-installed occupation administrations reported the following Ukrainian strikes on civilian infrastructure:

Dec. 13: In Hola Prystan, located in the occupied part of the Kherson Region, an FPV drone hit a minibus, killing one person and injuring two others.
Dec. 14: Drones attacked a residential building in the village of Maysky in the Belgorod Region, killing a young boy and injuring his mother and sister.
Dec 20: The town of Rylsk in the Kursk Region came under missile fire. Updated data indicates five people were killed and 12 were injured.

Losses

The BBC Russian Service and independent outlet Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, published estimates of Russian losses in the war based on open-source reports for 2024. They were able to confirm 20,364 fatalities, with the dates of death for another 11,860 individuals still unknown. Given that at least 33,550 deaths were verified in 2023, this year could turn out to be the deadliest for the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Five people were killed and another seven were injured following a fire in a detention facility for deserters in Yakutsk. According to the “Free Yakutia” foundation, the facility housed wounded soldiers who refused to return to the front. These Russian servicemen were reportedly tortured — including by being beaten, denied access to toilets, and forced to listen to songs by the pro-war singer Shaman. A source cited by Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti claimed that the fire was started by the detainees themselves as part of an escape attempt.

Weapons and military aid

The Pentagon has admitted that it will not be able to allocate at least $2 billion in approved military aid to Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) before the end of Joe Biden's term, leaving these funds at the disposal of Donald Trump's administration. Meanwhile, plans are in place to fully utilize the remaining $1.2 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program.

A source cited by Reuters has also indicated that NATO, rather than the U.S., will be in charge of coordinating military aid to Ukraine going forward.

During the week, the following military aid packages for Ukraine were announced:

UK Defense Secretary John Healey raised the possibility of deploying a limited contingent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian soldiers. He also announced an additional military aid package worth £225 million ($285 million).
The German defense corporation Rheinmetall will deliver another 20 Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine, with delivery scheduled for the first half of 2025. By January 2025, the company will also supply Ukraine with tens of thousands of powder charges for 155mm artillery shells.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the delivery of a new IRIS-T SLM air defense system battery to Ukraine, along with two additional launchers for the system.
The government of Norway allocated approximately 2.7 billion kroner (close to $242 million) to strengthen Ukraine’s naval defenses.
The government of Denmark allocated over $290 million to enhance Ukraine’s air defense and support the operation of Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets.
Members of the “drone coalition” will begin delivering “tens of thousands” of various types of UAVs to Ukraine starting in January next year.
The EU plans to train an additional 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the end of February 2025.

Meanwhile, Russia’s stockpiles of armored vehicles and artillery rounds at storage bases have decreased to half of their pre-war levels, with the remaining equipment largely in poor technical condition. Tanks such as the T-62M and T-62MV are being deployed to the frontlines without any signs of upgrades or modifications.