The Gas Man Cometh: Moscow risks losing Transnistria by creating energy problems for Moldova

The suspension of Russian gas supplies to Moldova has plunged the pro-Russian region of Transnistria into a state of cold and darkness. Since Jan. 1, the region has been left without heating and hot water, and for five hours each day, without electricity. The unprecedented crisis has already resulted in human casualties, forcing Transnistrian authorities to accept gas supplies from Moldova. This development has dealt a blow to Russia’s image, as it failed to shield the loyal, unrecognized republic from harsh conditions. Moreover, it has deepened Tiraspol's dependence on Chișinău. Yet as the Kremlin faces the potential loss of Transnistria, it may have more ambitious goals in mind. The energy crisis has driven up prices in Moldova, which could erode the pro-Western government’s popularity and provide Moscow with an opportunity to empower pro-Russian political forces.

• 1.Emergency cutoff
• 2.Not saving their own
• 3.Home harbor
• 4.Overall failure

RU

Emergency cutoff

Since Jan. 1, 2025, hundreds of thousands of residents in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) have been living in cold and darkness. There is no hot water or heating. Gas in apartment buildings is supplied only for cooking, and those living in private houses have been cut off from gas altogether, leaving people to heat their homes with firewood or electric appliances. Everyone’s electricity is turned off for five hours each day.

The crisis has already resulted in human casualties. Since the beginning of the year, 25 people have suffered carbon monoxide poisoning from stoves or gas burners used for heating, with four fatalities. Additionally, 53 fires caused by faulty wiring, electric heaters, or stoves have been reported.

Gas supplies were halted for two reasons. First, Naftogaz Ukraine did not renew its contract with Russian energy giant Gazprom for the transit of gas through Ukrainian territory, traditionally the route for delivering Russian gas to Moldova — including to the Transnistrian region, which is outside Chișinău’s control.

Second, Gazprom itself refused to supply gas to Moldova, citing an alleged unresolved debt owed by the government in Chișinău. On December 28, the company issued a notification stating that Moldova owes $709 million, according to Gazprom’s calculations. Moldovan authorities, referencing an international audit, claim the debt is only $8.6 million — a figure Russia refuses to acknowledge.

The Moldovan state company Moldovagaz handles gas supplies both within the country and in the unrecognized Transnistria

Right-bank Moldova — a term used to refer to the territory excluding Transnistria — has not used Russian gas since 2022, despite a supply contract valid until 2026. Chișinău switched to purchasing gas on the European exchange after Gazprom unilaterally halved gas deliveries in 2022, citing Ukraine's blockade of one of the two entry points to the export pipeline. Following this, Russian gas was supplied exclusively to Transnistria, amounting to approximately 5.7 million cubic meters per day. Notably, Tiraspol has not paid for Russian gas in 20 years, and Gazprom has never demanded payment. Instead, it has simply recorded the accumulating debt, which now totals $11.1 billion.

Tiraspol has not paid for Russian gas in 20 years, and Gazprom has never demanded payment. The unrecognized republic's accumulating debt now totals $11.1 billion

After the cessation of gas transit through Ukrainian territory, Gazprom retained the option of supplying Transnistria via an alternative route — the Trans-Balkan pipeline, which passes through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova before entering Ukraine. Gas could be delivered in reverse flow, from west to east. However, Gazprom did not reserve capacity on this pipeline for December 2024 or January 2025, instead demanding that Chișinău address its debt. As a result, on Jan. 1, residents of the unrecognized republic woke up without heating. As of the publication of this article, gas supplies have not resumed.

Not saving their own

Moscow has blamed the Transnistrian energy crisis on Chișinău and Kyiv, citing the debt issue and the closure of old transit routes, respectively. Moldova and Ukraine, in turn, hold Russia responsible for the crisis — and for its humanitarian consequences. Moldovan officials at various levels have accused the Kremlin of seeking to destabilize the country during a parliamentary election year, as the outcome of the vote in July will determine whether pro-Western or pro-Russian forces end the year in power in the republic.

Kyiv shares these sentiments, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating:

“The entire current energy situation in Moldova, including on the left bank of the Dniester, is an attempt by Russia to manipulate energy resources against Moldova’s authorities.”

The exchange of accusations does not change the fact that free Russian gas has ceased flowing to Transnistria, plunging the unrecognized republic into an unprecedented crisis. The last time the region faced a gas outage was in January 2009, during a temporary dispute between Russia and Ukraine over gas prices. This time, the situation is different: there are no negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, and the gas supply has already been cut off for nearly a month (compared to the two-week crisis in 2009).

Initially blaming Chișinău for the shutoff, Tiraspol sought to resolve the issue with Moscow. In mid-January, Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky traveled to the Russian capital. At a Jan. 15 briefing held after his return home, Krasnoselsky announced that Russia had agreed to provide gas as a form of humanitarian aid. “Following these negotiations, very soon — just a little more patience — gas will start flowing to Transnistria,” promised the head of the unrecognized republic.

Home harbor

Chișinău, for its part, was ready from the outset to help resolve the gas problem.

“Everything can be organized very quickly if there is both the willingness and the necessary funds,” Vadim Cheban, head of Moldovagaz, told The Insider. “If there are no funds, the [Moldovan] government can be approached for a trade credit. Any option is possible, but so far, we haven’t seen a reciprocal request. We’ve explained to our colleagues at Tiraspoltransgaz how this works, how the exchange functions, and how they can procure natural gas to supply the Transnistrian region. As of now, we’ve received no response.”

Vadim Cheban, Head of Moldovagaz

Ultimately, Tiraspol, which initially rejected Chișinău’s proposals, was compelled to agree to accept gas supplies delivered through Moldovagaz. The decision was confirmed by Vadim Krasnoselsky: “Tiraspoltransgaz has informed Moldovagaz that it does not object to and welcomes Moldovagaz’s willingness to supply gas to Transnistria. Tiraspoltransgaz guarantees payment for the supplies.”

It was soon revealed that the gas would be provided by Ozbor Enterprises, a Cypriot company established by former Gazprom employees. On Jan. 20, Ozbor Enterprises reserved 3.2 million cubic meters per day at the Strandzha-2 metering station on the Turkey-Bulgaria border. The capacity is booked for one month starting from Feb. 1. The daily volume — 3.2 million cubic meters — precisely matches Transnistria’s energy needs.

It is expected that the supply will be financed from the Russian budget, with the compensation likely to be classified, in line with Krasnoselsky’s announcement, as humanitarian aid. A total of $162 million has been allocated to cover energy requirements until April 2025. What measures will be taken after that remains to be seen.

It is expected that the supply will be financed from the Russian budget as humanitarian aid

However, the Moldovan authorities, whose approval is required to begin supplies, have been in no hurry to grant their permission. “The government has not received information about any new decisions regarding gas supplies to the Transnistrian region,”government spokesperson Daniel Vodă said on Jan. 22.

According to Vodă, the Moldovan side requested details from the Russian Embassy in Chișinău about the companies that might participate in the possible resumption of gas supplies, but has yet to receive a response. “The solution is simple and can be implemented today,” he explained. “Gazprom must supply natural gas to Moldovagaz in accordance with the contract. Russia is creating artificial schemes. Meanwhile, the region’s residents are left without heating.”

Overall failure

By late January, the situation had developed further. Transnistrian residents, whom Moscow has repeatedly promised to protect, remain without Russian gas and are still being forced to endure rolling blackouts and unheated homes. But regardless of whom Russia blames, it is Gazprom’s cessation of supplies to the unrecognized republic that is damaging Russia’s image there, as Transnistria, which considers itself an independent state, has been compelled to seek assistance from Moldova — a move that clearly undermines the longstanding policy of the Transnistrian leadership.

Nevertheless, the crisis has also significantly affected Moldova, despite its secure gas supply. Previously, Chișinău purchased electricity from the Moldavskaya GRES power plant located in Transnistria. The plant is controlled by the Russian company Inter RAO and generated electricity using free Russian gas. This resource was used to meet Transnistria’s internal needs, with excess capacity sold to Moldova at prices far below European market rates.

The energy crisis has also significantly affected Moldova, despite its secure gas supply

When the supply of free gas ended, the power plant switched to coal and ceased supplying electricity to the right bank of the Dniester. As a result, Moldova began purchasing electricity from Romania, which forced a significant increase in energy tariffs for the population. Rising energy prices typically lead to higher overall costs for goods, and economists are predicting a rise in inflation. The National Bank of Moldova has already raised the base interest rate from 3.6% to 5.6%.

These factors could result in a drop in approval ratings for Moldova’s current government — pro-Western President Maia Sandu, her ruling Action and Solidarity Party, and the parliament led by Prime Minister Dorin Recean, an independent politician who was appointed by Sandu’s party. This will be especially important in an election year. Russia, as demonstrated by the tough fight its political allies in the country put up against Sandu in last year’s presidential elections, has not lost interest in Moldova. However, the Kremlin now appears to be playing an even more cynical game than before, leaving its loyalis without gas and electricity simply in order to continue pursuing its political objectives.