Not shelling out: The European Union attempts to relaunch its defense industry amid the threat of conflict with Russia

Lack of coordination

“NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and EU Member States’ intelligence services are warning us: if we do nothing, in five years' time, Russia may be ready for a military confrontation with NATO and the European Union,” Andrius Kubilius, EU Commissioner for Defense and Space, warned on Jan. 22 at the annual European Defense Agency conference. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revealed serious defense issues within the EU — despite the fact that all but four of its 27 member states are also NATO members.

One example of these problems was the EU's promise to supply Ukraine with one million 155mm artillery shells within 12 months. The decision, hailed as “historic” by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in March 2023, ultimately proved too ambitious for Europe. The promised million shells were meant to resolve Ukraine’s “ammunition shortage,” but the EU failed to deliver on time. Eight months after making the bold commitment, Europe had provided Kyiv with less than a third of the promised volume. Several factors contributed to the failure of this ambitious initiative.

First, the EU faced industrial capacity shortages. “There were voices that warned: 'You better watch out. One million is easily said, the money is available, (but) the production must be there.' These warning voices have been proven right, unfortunately,” explained German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Second, manufacturers struggled with orders, which EU countries were slow to place. Thierry Breton, the former European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, said that defense plants had expanded production capacity ahead of schedule but that they still could not start manufacturing all by themselves: “It is the member states who must place the order for this ammunition.” By the time Europe had delivered the third of the promised ammunition, its stockpiles were nearly depleted, and only 180,000 new shells had actually been ordered.

Third, there were conflicts between political priorities and business interests. Delivery schedules for Ukraine were postponed, funding was delayed, and in the meantime, European defense companies, according to Borrell, were exporting 40% of their production outside the EU.

Finally, EU countries disagreed on how the supply plan should be implemented. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, for example, proposed buying rounds from outside the EU. However, EU officials were unwilling to finance such projects.

Europe eventually managed to deliver one million shells to Kyiv, but it did so nine months behind schedule. Judging by Volodymyr Zelensky’s statements, similar issues persist with other equipment, especially aircraft, of which Ukraine has received only minimal numbers.