Muhammad in his own land: How Saudi Arabia’s crown prince turned his kingdom into a key player in global politics

Thanks to Mohammed bin Salman, sports such as boxing, wrestling, off-road racing, and even bull runs have made their way to the kingdom. Additionally, Saudis and foreigners alike now have access to rave parties. In December 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a government-approved rave attracted over 700,000 young Saudis and lasted for four days. A visitor to one such event in 2022 recalled that locals and foreigners danced barefoot, women wore sleeveless outfits and revealing tops, and alcohol was even served at the gathering.

These previously unthinkable changes, introduced as part of the sweeping Vision 2030 program, have shaped the crown prince’s image as a modern reformer in the eyes of the global community. This carefully crafted image enables him to carry out harsh crackdowns on dissent, as the kingdom’s internal affairs are of little concern to Formula 1 spectators or fans of Portuguese football star Cristiano Ronaldo, who has now been playing for Riyadh-based club Al-Nassr for nearly two years.

Major foreign policy ambitions

Even as defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman actively pursued his ambitions on the international stage. In March 2015, at his initiative, Riyadh launched Operation Decisive Storm against the Yemen-based, Iran-aligned Ansar Allah movement (commonly known as the Houthis).

What Saudi generals had been assured would be a brief operation lasting only weeks instead dragged on for nearly a decade, yielding no significant results. The Houthis continue to control about a third of Yemen’s territory, including the capital, Sanaa, home to roughly 80% of the country's population.

The kingdom has spent billions of dollars in its efforts to suppress the rebels, who in recent years have only strengthened their ability to carry out precision strikes on Saudi territory. For example, in September 2019, Houthi drone attacks paralyzed Saudi Arabia’s oil industry for nearly a day. Riyadh ultimately agreed to a truce with them in April 2022, and although the ceasefire officially expired in October of that year, in practice it has remained in place.

By March 2023, the kingdom was losing ground on all fronts to its main geopolitical rival — Iran. In Iraq, the influence of the pro-Iranian Shiite militias Al-Hashd al-Shaabi had grown stronger. In Syria, Tehran’s ally Bashar al-Assad remained in power, while the Saudi-backed armed opposition was in retreat. Finally, in Yemen, the Houthis had not only survived, but further consolidated their position. Against this backdrop, Riyadh was forced to restore diplomatic relations with Tehran through Chinese mediation.

Another failed gamble by the Saudi kingdom under its increasingly influential crown prince was the blockade imposed on Qatar in June 2017. The Gulf Arab states and Egypt accused Doha of supporting terrorism and maintaining close ties with Iran. However, Qatar refused to comply with any of the demands set by its neighbors. Nevertheless, during a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in January 2021, Saudi Arabia and other member states reinstated diplomatic ties with Qatar.

The role of a global mediator

Despite foreign policy setbacks, Saudi Arabia’s influence in the Middle East has grown significantly in recent years — especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Iraq, Syria, and particularly Egypt were considered the key Arab powers in the late 20th and early 21st centuries — with seven out of eight secretaries-general of the Arab League, including current head Ahmed Aboul Gheit, having been Egyptian — Saudi Arabia is now vying for this role.

In November 2023, at the initiative of Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom hosted an emergency Arab League summit focused on the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In January 2025, Assad Hassan al-Shibani, who became the foreign minister of Syria’s transitional government following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad, made his first foreign visit — to Riyadh. On February 2, the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Julani) also traveled to Riyadh for his first international trip — contrary to media expectations that he would go to Turkey. Reports are also emerging about Riyadh’s potential role as a mediator in the resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran on Iran’s nuclear program.

Saudi Arabia plays a key role in the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Had it not been for the escalation of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, the kingdom would likely have become the seventh Arab country to establish diplomatic relations with Israel under U.S. mediation. In turn, Riyadh has set its own conditions for a deal with the Jewish state: security guarantees from the United States and assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program.

In 2020, during Donald Trump’s first stint in the White House, the normalization of relations between Israel and four Arab countries — the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan — was achieved via the Abraham Accords, and Israel appears set to pursue the resumption of this process. However, any discussion on the restoration of relations between Israel and the Arab world will now inevitably raise the issue of Israel's recognition of Palestinian statehood. Given Trump's stated plans to expel Palestinians from the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing regional conflict, further diplomatic breakthroughs appear increasingly distant.

A negotiations hub

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West's reliance on imports of hydrocarbons from the Gulf states only increased. Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil producer and sixth-largest natural gas producer, played a central role in this dynamic. The surge in oil prices during the first half of 2022, surpassing $100 per barrel, benefited all oil-producing nations, including Russia and Saudi Arabia. At that time, Riyadh and Moscow were already closely cooperating under the OPEC+ framework, coordinating oil production levels in their mutual interest.

The war in Ukraine did not disrupt Russian-Saudi relations. During his visit to the kingdom in July 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden sought to convince Mohammed bin Salman to boost oil production in order to lower prices and exert pressure on Russia. However, Biden’s efforts yielded no results. Even the decision by the Biden administration, which stated that the Saudi crown prince, as a head of state, “is not subject to liability” in the case of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, did not change the course of events.

In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the crown prince has maintained a position of relative neutrality. In February 2023, Saudi Arabia announced a $410 million humanitarian aid package for Ukraine. Later that year, in August, at the initiative of President Volodymyr Zelensky and with the support of the Saudi crown prince, an international summit on Ukraine took place in Jeddah, attended by 42 countries, with Russia notably absent. However, by December, Mohammed bin Salman was personally hosting Vladimir Putin during the Russian president’s visit to Riyadh.

This approach has positioned the crown prince as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv. For instance, in September 2022, thanks to Saudi efforts, Ukraine secured an exchange of pro-Kremlin politician Viktor Medvedchuk and 55 Russian soldiers for 215 Ukrainian prisoners of war. Many subsequent exchanges have also been facilitated thanks to Saudi involvement.