Right turn gone wrong: The rise of right-wing populism will harm the environment and exacerbate climate problems

Importantly, this assessment is based on pre-pandemic data and does not reflect the escalation of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Why the world struggles to reach an agreement

The need to fight climate change is becoming more urgent. The year 2024 was yet another warmest year in recorded history, and for the first time, the annual average global air temperature exceeded the pre-industrial level (1850-1900) by more than 1.5 °C, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) views as the threshold for a safe temperature increase.

The goal of staying below that threshold is enshrined in the Paris Agreement, the main international document to date on combating climate change, signed in 2015 by 195 countries. One year above the 1.5 °C limit does not mean a climate catastrophe, and the Paris Agreement refers to a long-term temperature rise. But there is little hope for improvement, scientists warn.

As many as 147 countries have committed to achieving climate or carbon neutrality by around mid-century or a little later. Carbon neutrality involves offsetting any remaining carbon dioxide emissions by absorbing the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere — by protecting and regrowing forests, for instance. Achieving climate neutrality, meanwhile, requires offsetting emissions of all greenhouse gases — not only CO2, but also methane, nitrous oxide, and others.

The IPCC notes that greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 43% from 2019 levels before 2030 and by 60% before 2035 if we are to limit global warming to 1.5 °C in the 21st century. However, the 2024 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report by the Paris Agreement secretariat warns that the current targets are extremely low. Even if the countries' available NDCs are fully implemented, greenhouse gas emissions will only be reduced by 2.6% from 2019 levels by 2030.

Despite years of international efforts, there is still insufficient understanding between developed and developing countries on climate issues. Late in 2024, Baku hosted COP29, and one of its main outcomes was a new climate funding target for developing countries: $300 billion a year from developed countries by 2035. The previous goal, adopted in 2009, called for $100 billion a year by 2020. That funding goal was met, but only by extending the deadline, as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) assessed that developed countries mobilized a total of $115.9 billion in climate finance for developing countries in 2022, surpassing the $100 billion mark for the first time.

The new target of $300 billion a year disappointed developing countries and climate activists, who were counting on $1.3 trillion, which is exactly how much developing countries other than China need from all external sources through 2035 in order to reach their climate goals. The $1.3 trillion a year figure did make it into the final COP29 document, which calls on all participants (developed and developing countries alike) to try and find that kind of money from public and private sources by 2035.

The Global South has traditionally (and rightly) demanded financial compensation from the Global North for climate change — which, after all, is caused largely by the long-term economic activities of developed countries. The developed countries began the industrial revolution and were the first to use massive amounts of fossil fuels. They also participated in the colonization of many developing countries, coupled with the exploitation of their natural resources and irresponsible treatment of their environment.