Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: AFU face threat of encirclement in Kursk, Russia retreats near Pokrovsk, “layer cake” in Toretsk

By the end of the week, Russia’s pro-war channels (1, 2, 3) even reported the start of a Ukrainian “counteroffensive” on the Pokrovsk front, pointing to the AFU’s advances in Uspenivka and Shevchenko. According to a report by self-styled “war correspondent” Andrey Filatov, Russia’s setbacks comemainly due to logistical problems, AFU drone superiority, and reckless orders from commanders.

The Ukrainian channel Oko Hora ✙ News and Analytics published an infographic on the number of clashes taking place inside Ukraine from Feb. 24 to March 2, 2025. It shows a 13% decrease, the lowest level seen in the past nine months (the data excludes operations on the Kursk front). Oko Hora also released an infographic on the territorial advances of Russian forces over the same period, indicating that Russian troops captured only 2 square kilometers per day during that week.

DeepState notes that Russian territorial gains have been declining for three consecutive months. While in January 2025 Russian forces captured 325 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, in February they took only 192 square kilometers. The peak came in November 2024, with 730 square kilometers. The decline is also reflected in the assessments of pro-Russian OSINT project LostArmour.