Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: AFU leaves Russia’s Kursk Region, the largest UAV raid on Russia, ceasefire talks

In the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian forces managed to advance in the Malynivka area east of Myrnohrad, as well as in the southern part of Udachne and Shevchenko to the west and southwest of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Russian forces are assaulting settlements previously liberated by the Ukrainians and are launching assault columns towards the Dnipropetrovsk Region (1, 2). Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets reports active resistance of the Ukrainian forces against the brunt of the Russian offensive southwest of Pokrovsk, where the Russian Armed Forces are trying to regain positions lost during successful counterattacks by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Nevertheless, Mashovets refuses to second Russian pro-war channels in calling Ukraine's actions a “counter-offensive.”

In the Toretsk sector, Russian forces have “run out of steam” or taken a pause, and the Defense Forces of Ukraine have advanced in the Zabalka neighborhood in Toretsk. Additionally, a Russian tank column was destroyed in the sector. The depletion of Russian forces in this area is indirectly evidenced by the participation in the fighting of the 20th regiment, recruited from the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, which is responsible for guarding nuclear warheads and other nuclear facilities.

For the second week in a row, the pace of territorial advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine remains at its lowest level since April 2024, according to DeepState data analyzed by the independent publication Agentstvo. During the week of Mar. 3-9, Russian forces occupied 14.4 square kilometers of new territory, compared with 12.9 square kilometers a week earlier.

Following a meeting with U.S. representatives in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian delegation agreed to the conditions of a 30-day ceasefire, after which the U.S. resumed its deliveries of military aid and restarted intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The Russian pro-war community reacted to the idea of a ceasefire extremely negatively, fearing that it would allow the AFU to strengthen its defenses. Vladimir Putin hinted that he would support a ceasefire only with preconditions.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

The AFU Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) downing 549 UAVs of the Shahed type and other unidentified types out of 843 that Russia launched against Ukrainian territory during the week. Another 235 UAVs were “radar lost” under the influence of electronic warfare equipment. In addition, the Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting two of eight missiles of various types.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported downing or intercepting 748 fixed-wing Ukrainian UAVs over the territory of Russia and occupied Crimea. Of those, 337 were shot down on the night of Mar. 11, following the Ukraine-U.S. talks in Saudi Arabia. Russian pro-war channels estimated that 400-500 UAVs were involved in the attack, which is the largest number seen in the war. The attack was also marked by this year's first major raid on Moscow. In Moscow Region, three people were killed and another 20 injured. The AFU General Staff reported a strike on an oil refinery in Moscow's Kapotnya and on the dispatch station of the Druzhba oil pipeline while blaming any damage caused to civilian infrastructure on the actions of Russian air defense systems.

In addition, the occupation “governor” of the Kherson Region, Volodymyr Saldo, reported that three people had been killed and eight injured in a Mar. 10 HIMARS strike on a market in occupied Velyki Kopani. As the footage of the aftermath reveals, Russian military personnel were among the dead and wounded.

According to CIT volunteers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), strikes against civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front between 20:00 on Mar. 6 and 20:00 on Mar. 13 killed at least 85 civilians and injured another 349.

Losses

Mediazona, together with the BBC Russian Service and with assistance from a team of volunteers, has updated its estimates of Russia's war losses based on open source reports. The list of killed combatants as of Mar. 14, 2025 includes 97,994 people. Volunteers are processing another 10,000 obituaries.

Ukrainian ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said that he had filed complaints to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross over the alleged execution of a group of Ukrainian POWs near Kazachya Loknya in Russia's Kursk Region (geolocation). Footage of the killed AFU servicemen had been posted in a Russian pro-war channel.