Weekly Russian-Ukrainian war summary: Strike on Kryvyi Rih, Russia bombs Belgorod Region, Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia slows down

In March 2025, Russia's territorial progress in Ukraine slumped to its lowest level since the summer of 2024, according to DeepState analysis. The Russian Armed Forces have occupied 133 square kilometers in the past month, compared to 115 square kilometers in June 2024. DeepState estimates based on the data of the AFU General Staff also suggest that the effectiveness of Russian attacks in the area assigned to Ukraine's Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group has seen a manifold drop in recent months: whereas this past November the General Staff recorded an average of 7.1 assaults for each newly occupied square kilometer, in March the average number of attacks required to take one additional unit of territory spiked to 36.4.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

On the night of Apr. 1, for the first time in 2025, no Shahed-type UAV launches on Ukrainian territory were recorded (though the AFU Air Force reported intercepting both of the Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles Russia launched that night). Helicopterpilot, a Telegram channel close to Russian army aviation, attributed this anomaly to weather conditions, which seems plausible given that the raids continued on other days. The AFU reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) downing 338 Shahed-type and other UAVs out of the 605 Russia launched during the week. Another 216 UAVs were “radar lost” under the influence of electronic warfare tools.

The Shahed Tracker OSINT project summarized statistics on the use of Shaheds and other unidentified types of UAVs in March 2025. A record 4,198 UAVs were launched during the 31 days of March. Of these, 2,435 were shot down, 1,386 were landed with the help of electronic warfare tools or turned out to be decoys, and 377 drones reached their targets.

The most deadly Russian strike on civilian infrastructure was the ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih on Apr. 4, with the missile landing near a children's playground in a residential area. According to preliminary reports, 18 civilians, including nine children, were killed and 61 others, including 12 children, were injured. Five apartment buildings were damaged.