Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Russia’s “tactical breakthrough” east of Myrnohrad, third F-16 lost, peace talks in Istanbul

Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets reports (1, 2, 3) that at the junction of the Toretsk and Pokrovsk sectors, Russian troops accomplished a “tactical breakthrough” of the AFU defense to a depth of 5-5.4 km with a front width of 9.5-9.7 km, occupying several settlements, reaching the lines connecting Novoolenivka with Oleksandropil and Malynivka with Nova Poltavka, and taking control of a section of the road from Pokrovsk to Bakhmut.

Vladimir Putin rejected a 30-day ceasefire ultimatum put forward by several European states. Instead, he suggested resuming Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul. After Donald Trump supported this proposal, Volodymyr Zelensky proposed holding a high-level Russian-Ukrainian summit in Turkey. In anticipation of the talks, the Europeans delayed the imposition of sanctions, which were originally scheduled to go into effect on May 12 in the event that the Russian Armed Forces failed to implement a ceasefire before that date. However, Putin never traveled to Turkey, and the Russian delegation was instead led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who had represented the Kremlin at the talks in Istanbul in 2022. The Russian delegation demanded that Ukraine transfer to Russia control over the four “new regions” — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, which Russia lists as its territories in the country’s amended constitution — and threatened to seize Sumy and Kharkiv regions if Kyiv refused.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

Between May 7 and May 16, the AFU Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) downing 340 UAVs of the Shahed type and other unidentified types out of 624 launched over Ukrainian territory. Another 184 UAVs were “radar lost” under the influence of electronic warfare tools. No Russian drone strikes were recorded during the ceasefire from May 8 to 10.

According to a report by Reporters Without Borders and Truth Hounds, Russian forces carried out at least 31 strikes on 25 Ukrainian hotels, injuring seven journalists and killing a Reuters employee. Human rights activists interpret these attacks as part of Russia's strategy to intimidate media representatives and reduce independent coverage of the war. Meanwhile, 64% of Ukrainian journalists and 43% of their foreign colleagues avoid staying in hotels near the front line.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, for its part, reported the destruction of 148 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over the territory of Russia and occupied Crimea between May 7 and May 16. Of these, 58 were allegedly destroyed during the ceasefire.

Novaya Gazeta Europe estimates that Russian airports have halted operations 217 times since the beginning of 2025 due to UAV raids. Airfields were closed more often in less than five months of 2025 than in all of 2023 (58) and 2024 (91) combined.

CIT volunteers estimate (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) that between 8:00 p.m. on May 6 and 8:00 p.m. on May 15, strikes on civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front killed at least 59 people and injured 293 more. Of these, 11 people were killed and 54 were injured during the “ceasefire.” Also according to CIT, 273 civilians were killed and 1,748 injured this past April as a result of shelling on both sides of the front line. This represents the highest number of civilian casualties (2,021) since at least January 2024, when the collection of relevant statistics began.

Losses

The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona, working jointly with a team of volunteers, have identified 108,608 people killed during the full-scale war in Ukraine on the Russian side. In the past two-week period, 1,863 names were added to the list.

For the fifth time since the beginning of 2025, the sides exchanged bodies of killed combatants, with Ukraine retrieving 909 bodies, and Russia 34. The pro-Russian OSINT project Slivochny Kapriz has been tracking body swaps since May 2023. Overall, Russia has handed over 7,790 bodies, and Ukraine 1,408 bodies.

The AFU Air Force reported the crash of an F-16 fighter jet due to an “abnormal situation” that occurred while the plane was repelling an air attack on Ukrainian territory. This is Ukraine's third lost F-16. In the previous two instances, the pilots were killed, but this time the pilot managed to eject. Russian pro-war channels put forward versions of the plane's downing by a Shahed detonation and strike by a Russian S-400 air defense system.

Weapons and military vehicles

Ukrainian OSINT resource Oko Gora ✙ News and Analytics calculated that in April Kyiv's partners announced the delivery of 8-10 Puma HC 2 helicopters and 255 ground vehicles, including 216 MRAP-class armored vehicles, 36 T-72M1 tanks, and three Zuzana 2 self-propelled guns. In the meantime, it was revealed that Ukraine has yet to receive many weapons promised under contracts signed early in the war. The amount paid under these contracts totals $770 million, which accounts for 3.7% of Kyiv's arms purchases during the full-scale Russian invasion.

As for Ukraine's domestic defense projects, the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) presented to the public a line of Magura sea drones, including the Magura V7 with Sidewinder surface-to-air missiles installed — a model known for downing a manned aircraft for the first time in history. Also for the first time, the Defense Forces of Ukraine hit a Russian military officer with a grenade launcher mounted on a UAV. Ukrainian troops also began to equip reconnaissance drones with “barbecue grills,” presumably to protect them from battering rams and net guns, and followed the Russians in equipping tanks with similar makeshift armor of a larger size (1, 2).