Kooks, antisemites, and scammers: Fringe figures are driving the narrative around Poland’s presidential runoff

“Zandberg isn’t a fringe figure, to be fair,” says political analyst Łukasz Jasina. “He’s a very consistent politician: he says the same things he did ten years ago, holds the same views, and achieves about the same result.”

Zandberg and Mentzen share more than their status as potential kingmakers — they appeal to a similar demographic: young voters. According to an Ipsos poll, 18% of voters aged 18 to 29 supported Zandberg. For a politician who split from a mainstream, albeit left-wing, party, this marks a significant achievement. He emerged as the frontrunner among left-wing candidates — though only narrowly ahead of Magdalena Biejat, who received 4.23% compared to his 4.86%.

Within government circles, discussions have already begun about offering Zandberg a role — perhaps as deputy PM or head of a proposed new Ministry of Housing Policy. But right now, what Trzaskowski needs most are votes, particularly from the left. Securing support from the voters of all three allied candidates — especially those on the left — will be crucial. Because the backers of Mentzen and Braun are all but certain to gravitate toward the more ideologically aligned Karol Nawrocki.

Looking at the first-round results, it’s clear that the Polish right currently holds more electoral capital. Turnout, however, will be the decisive factor. The higher it climbs, the better the odds for the liberals. Nevertheless, political analyst Łukasz Jasina believes that, heading into the runoff, Karol Nawrocki has the momentum.

“Nawrocki has overcome more challenges than his opponent and has stepped into the role of frontrunner — a position Rafał Trzaskowski held until just before the second round,” Jasina told The Insider.

An “Alternative” for Poland?

Regardless of the actual outcome of Poland’s presidential runoff, one thing has become clear: Europe’s surprise at Poland’s deviation from the continental trend was short-lived. When Polish voters backed liberals and the left in 2023 — at a time when the far right was surging in France, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, the Netherlands, and elsewhere — it looked like a break from the pattern. But now, the rightward shift appears to have caught up with Poland too.

“I think it’s the same mechanism we’re seeing across Europe. Poland is not different — it’s not unique in this,” said political analyst and commentator Grzegorz Ślubowski. In his view, even the 2023 election shouldn't be seen as a major liberal triumph. “I wouldn’t call that election a huge success for Civic Platform. The coalition wasn’t a conquest — it all hung by a thread,” he told The Insider, noting that Donald Tusk had to cobble together every possible faction to form a government capable of opposing Law and Justice (PiS).

By nominating a politically unknown candidate, Karol Nawrocki, PiS tapped into a real public demand for new faces. That same impulse explains the success of Sławomir Mentzen, the strong numbers for far-right provocateur Grzegorz Braun, and even the relatively good showing by the “non-mainstream” leftist Adrian Zandberg.

Ślubowski says the current political moment marks a true breakthrough for the right, which has now taken on the traditional role of protest parties. “The main issue driving voters toward these new right-wing forces, as opposed to traditional conservatives, is migration,” he explained. “It’s not about personalities — it’s about a new approach. Mainstream parties [both liberal and nationalist] have reached a consensus on the issue. Their positions have become indistinguishable. So people are voting for something new, for something completely different.”

“Whether that’s a good idea is a whole other discussion,” Ślubowski added. “It’s easy to criticize or make demands when you're not the one in power. Making decisions is a lot harder than pointing out problems.”

So how have these new parties managed to connect so effectively with voters? Ślubowski points to the role of social media. Traditional media, he argues, no longer carries the same weight, while platforms like YouTube and Facebook allow candidates to speak directly to their audiences.

“Mentzen simply invites rivals to his studio, and suddenly everyone is quoting and reposting clips from his YouTube channel, not the other way around,” Ślubowski said. “In my view, Braun, Zandberg, and Mentzen have all succeeded thanks to social media.” According to Ślubowski, social platforms have given a boost specifically to those candidates with a strong base among younger voters.

Statistics back that up: Facebook alone has nearly 30 million users in Poland, a country with a population of about 38.5 million. Among young Poles, social media usage is virtually universal — nearly every young person uses at least one platform.

Today, these three figures are driving the conversation for the leading candidates. But tomorrow, they could be the ones in power. If that happens, even Law and Justice might be remembered by its current opponents as a relatively tame and manageable sparring partner. After all, it was the PiS government and presidency that, in 2022, took in five million refugees, coordinated military aid to Ukraine, and placed Poland’s armed forces on high alert. A new generation of politicians appears to be stepping forward — one that, instead of offering support, tells Ukrainians either to return home or to stay in Poland without benefits, and proposes leaving their embattled country without aid, or even without the promise of it.