Offensive? What offensive?

Analysts react to the Ukrainian military chief’s claim that a Russian offensive in the Sumy region has been halted

Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has compared the Russian summer offensive in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region to its unsuccessful attempt to recapture territory in the Kharkiv region last year.

According to Syrskyi, AFU units have now retaken the Ukrainian territory briefly held by Russian forces in the border areas of the Sumy region, cutting off approximately “50,000 Russian servicemen, including elite air force and marine brigades”. Syrskyi also said that an AFU offensive around the town of Glushkovo in Russia’s neighbouring Kursk region had “forced the enemy to send troops to defend their territory, significantly reducing their offensive capabilities” in the Sumy region.

Syrskyi added that a special force had been assembled to defend the Sumy region and that work was underway to strengthen Ukrainian defences and create fortification barriers.

“In the Sumy region, the enemy advance hasn’t been completely stopped,” an AFU serviceman who asked only to be identified as Serhiy told Novaya Gazeta Europe. “The situation may no longer be critical … but it is still complex and far from stable. This is especially true for the villages of Yunakivka, Yablunivka, Varachyne and several others. These areas have seen tactical advances by the enemy, which has been repelled from Andriivka, but their attempts to regain control of these villages and positions they have lost are ongoing.”

“The situation in the Sumy region is definitely better than a month ago,” Russian military researcher Kirill Mikhailov told Novaya Europe. “The Russians haven’t been able to advance anywhere in recent days. It’s difficult to analyse the effect of Ukrainian attacks on Tyotkino in the Kursk region, but there are several Russian units there, which are periodically being rotated due to losses.”

“There has been no Russian offensive in the Sumy region,” says Roman Svitan, a military expert and AFU reserve colonel. “In fact, recent Russian activity was just a continuation of fighting following the AFU being squeezed out of the Kursk region. … The enemy was able to move a little deeper into the Sumy region and capture about 10 border villages. To paraphrase Syrskyi, the Russians have run out of steam and the AFU retreat is over.”

Svitan added that the deployment of 50,000 Russian troops to the area by Russia’s high command was insufficient for a full-scale offensive. “Over 300,000 people live in Sumy. Storming a city like that would take years to organise.”

“The state of fortifications in the Sumy border region has been sharply criticised by Ukrainian analysts and military bloggers,” Mikhailov adds. “During the Kursk operation, the AFU did nothing to strengthen the border while it was under their control,” he said, before suggesting that Syrskyi’s sudden activity in the area had been fuelled by the public criticism he subsequently received.

Svitan, however, said he believed that the damage inflicted by the AFU on border settlements in Russia’s Kursk region would help to ensure that Ukrainian positions in the Sumy region could be defended. According to him, AFU defensive lines in the Sumy region are located in areas of forest and woodland, as building fortifications anywhere else would expose them to attacks from glide bombs or drones. So far, the Russians have been unable to reach the first line of Ukrainian defence structures.

“All this activity in the Sumy region is aimed at distracting the AFU from … Pokrovsk and at some point Zaporizhzhia,” says Svitan. “The Russians are now preparing to expand their land corridor to Crimea. All other territorial advances are secondary concerns.”