The sleeping dragon: Five simple ways China could put a stop to the war in Ukraine
Russia’s military-industrial complex is heavily reliant on imports, and it is not just advanced Western technologies that are irreplaceable. Even basic components are largely imported, as manufacturing them domestically has long been economically unviable. In theory, Russia could produce most of what it needs, but in practice, setting up production for even a single category of item typically takes a year or more. And scaling up production for a wide range of components simultaneously is virtually impossible.
That means Russia can only respond reactively, replacing imports in specific areas when supply chains break down. Thanks to the fact that decision makers in Moscow rarely know in advance what critical components might be sanctioned next, unexpected disruptions can stall production for months — or even years — before domestic production is built or an alternative foreign supplier is found.
The Insider has found that China’s role as a conduit for the illegal transshipment of Western precision technology to Russia may not be as significant as is often assumed. However, when it comes to low-cost, basic components and spare parts, China’s contribution to the Kremlin’s war machine is irreplaceable. Even halting exports of a single “minor” item — such as one that costs mere thousands of dollars — has the power to freeze a critical Russian production line for over a year. In the case of certain weapons systems, that could be decisive on the battlefield.