Russia on the horizon: Copying the Kremlin’s tactics increasingly puts Tbilisi in Moscow’s orbit
On Sept. 1, during a plenary session of parliament, Georgian Dream deputy Thea Tsulukiani reported on a six-month-long investigation into crimes allegedly committed by representatives of Georgia’s former authorities. The report states that in August 2008, “the Georgian army was drawn into a war” under the leadership of politicians who, “counting on support from external forces and ignoring the opinion of Georgian military officials, launched an offensive on the city of Tskhinvali.” Tsulukiani’s commission placed responsibility for starting the war on Georgia’s then-president, Mikheil Saakashvili. The country’s opposition countered that Russia would inevitably make use of the findings presented by this “traitorous commission.”
An upward spiral of loyalty
The work of Tsulukiani’s group is just one element in the long-running process of rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi. Davit Darchiashvili, a political analyst and professor at Tbilisi's Ilia State University, traces this process to as early as 2012, when Georgian Dream came to power: “The Russification of Georgian politics started long ago. Even though Ivanishvili’s coalition featured pro-Western figures, their hatred of Saakashvili blinded them so much that they paid no attention to it.”
For a long time, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili’s party refrained from open displays of loyalty to Russia. A notable incident occurred in 2019 at the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy, where Russian State Duma deputy Sergei Gavrilov took the seat reserved for the speaker of the Georgian parliament. The Georgian opposition reacted immediately by blocking the podium.
The ensuing protests were violently dispersed, yet officials, including the prime minister, condemned Gavrilov’s actions. The then-speaker of parliament — current prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze — resigned, a gesture by the ruling party meant to show that it “understands its responsibility before society.” Even Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili issued a statement about the “protocol mistake,” saying, “It is unacceptable for a representative of an occupying state to preside over any forum in the Georgian parliament.”
Two and a half years later, the situation had changed. On Feb. 1, 2022, amid growing concern that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine, the Georgian parliament adopted a resolution expressing support for Kyiv and calling for the prevention of military escalation. Russia, however, was not mentioned even once in the document. Responding to criticism, Kobakhidze, then chairman of Georgian Dream, said that the wording of the resolution “serves our national interests” and that the ruling party's foreign policy was aimed at ensuring “peace and security in Georgia.”
The controversial resolution was soon followed by a firm refusal to join sanctions against Russia. Georgia’s prime minister at the time, Irakli Garibashvili, said that imposing economic measures against Moscow “would only harm our country and our population.”
Turning its back on the EU
Despite its neutral relationship with Russia, Georgia’s rapprochement with Europe actually accelerated in 2022. In early March, Georgia applied for EU membership alongside Moldova. By the summer of 2022, the country was granted a “European perspective,” with a list of 12 candidacy conditions for Tbilisi to meet. Those that dealt with combating corruption, increasing electoral competitiveness, and de-oligarchization posed a challenge for the current government — and for Bidzina Ivanishvili personally.
Instead of trying to meet these requirements, the Georgian authorities chose to increase pressure on civil society. In the spring of 2023, Ivanishvili’s forces made their first attempt to pass a so-called “foreign agents” law, which the opposition immediately dubbed the “Russian law.” After several days of mass protests, the bill was withdrawn. Despite only modest progress in fulfilling the EU’s conditions, in December 2023 Georgia was granted EU candidate status “in advance.”