Refineries in the crosshairs: Ukraine’s “deep strike” strategy threatens major fuel shortages in Russia by 2026

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak insisted that “the situation is fully under control,” saying supply and demand remain balanced nationwide and that regional shortages are being addressed. The government has banned gasoline exports through the end of the year. Diesel exports, however, remain partially allowed, as production is still double domestic demand.

Gazprom Neft has postponed scheduled repairs at its Omsk refinery due to the fuel crisis, and the Ministry of Energy has asked all oil companies to do the same. “Together with them, we have adjusted the refinery's scheduled repair program so that scheduled repairs do not coincide with the period of peak demand for gasoline. We are also working with Russian Railways to ensure that tankers with gasoline from production regions are quickly transported to regions with the highest demand for gasoline,” Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev explained.

Novak also proposed that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin temporarily lift the ban on the gasoline additive monomethylaniline (MMA) for six months. “Despite the measures taken to protect fuel and energy facilities, there are risks of a deterioration in the situation with the supply of petroleum products to the domestic market,” Novak warned.

Russia typically produces more fuel than it consumes domestically, exporting roughly half — mainly diesel and fuel oil. Nationwide production should, in theory, cover demand, but the problem is delivering it on time.

Estimates of the damage to refining capacity vary widely. As of late September, roughly 38% of Russia’s primary refining capacity — about 338,000 tons per day — was offline, according to calculations by the agency Siala, with 70% of the outages linked to Ukrainian drone attacks. Some experts, however, doubt this unusually high figure. Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin said the number likely reflects the combined capacity of all refineries hit since Aug. 1, 2025 — not those simultaneously out of operation. “Is that the right way to count it? For getting an upper-bound estimate, yes,” he said.

In other words, if every strike were successful, and if the resulting damage completely knocked the refineries out of operation, the losses would amount to no more than 38% of Russia’s total refining capacity, Vakulenko explained. “To arrive at a more realistic figure, you need to answer at least two questions and adjust accordingly: first, can we really assume that every strike disables an entire plant to the point that it completely stops production, removing all of its capacity from the available volume? Second, is it certain that none of the damage has been repaired in the meantime — that the affected refineries are still offline?” Vakulenko said that in most cases, the refineries were only partially damaged, and some have already been repaired, meaning that part of the lost capacity has likely been restored.

A more realistic estimate comes from JPMorgan Chase, which says Russian refinery output has fallen by around 500,000 barrels — a drop of roughly 10%. According to calculations by Reuters, refining capacity has declined by 17%, or 1.1 million barrels per day. While these figures may sound less catastrophic than 38%, the trend is what matters: strikes on refineries continue to disable capacity faster than repairs can be made, meaning the percentage is likely to rise.

The impact of these refinery attacks will be felt both inside Russia and abroad. Mongolia, for instance, may start importing gasoline from China. Independent gas stations not affiliated with major oil producers are already losing money, with some already opting to close, according to reports by the Russian Fuel Union. Delivery delays now stretch up to two months, and the government’s ban on fuel exports has done little to ease the shortages.