Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko explains what Yermak’s resignation means for Zelensky and the peace process

On November 28, Ukrainian authorities searched the home of Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office and the country’s chief negotiator in the peace process, as part of a corruption investigation into alleged embezzlement at Energoatom. That evening, Yermak submitted his resignation. Meduza spoke with Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Center for Political Studies, about how Yermak’s departure will reshape Ukrainian politics — and what it means for the future of peace talks.

— Zelensky met with the Servant of the People faction back on November 20 and said he wouldn’t dismiss Andriy Yermak. Why did the president change his mind? Did it have anything to do with the search of Yermak’s apartment?

— Of course it happened because of the search. Yermak became, indirectly if not directly, a figure in a NABU [National Anti-Corruption Bureau] investigation. That made him toxic, and there was really no alternative [to him stepping down]. Sooner or later, the issue would have had to be resolved anyway. If he had stayed in his post, it could have triggered a political crisis inside Ukraine. And given that he was also leading Ukraine’s negotiating team with the United States on the terms for ending the war, his position created problems and risked weakening Ukraine’s hand in that process as well.

The fact that Yermak resigned on his own was the right move — it was the best way to defuse potential problems. At the same time, the opposition had been demanding his dismissal, and if he had been removed too early, it would have looked like a sign of weakness.

Yermak’s departure significantly reshapes Ukraine’s political power structure. Since 2019, we’ve essentially had a super-presidential system in which the president controlled the government through a single-party parliamentary majority. And because Yermak became Zelensky’s trusted confidant — effectively his main tool of governance — he wielded enormous influence. Many internal relationships within the state apparatus were built through Yermak, who took on the key functions of hands-on, day-to-day management.

Now that process is going to change dramatically, especially for Zelensky. Until now, he had one main button on his control panel — “Yermak.” Yes, he spoke directly with the prime minister, the defense minister, and the military leadership, but most presidential instructions went through Yermak. That button is gone now. He’ll have to build those relationships differently, especially with top political figures in parliament. He’ll have to meet with them more often.

Whoever becomes the new head of the presidential office won’t have that level of influence or that degree of proximity to the president. They’ll have to earn it.

— Could Yermak remain somewhere on the periphery of the power structure?

— I don’t think Zelensky will give him another post. In some situations, someone might be sent off as an ambassador, but this is different. Yermak is under investigation. I don’t know whether he’s under a travel ban, but he’s still under investigation, so I don’t think that kind of appointment is possible.

Some people, especially in the opposition, worry that even without a formal position, Yermak might remain close to Zelensky and help him and the new head of his office. That’s possible in theory, but if it happens, it will spark a lot of criticism. Yermak used to have an official role: he influenced concrete political decisions on Zelensky’s behalf and on the basis of his formal authority. That worked. But if he starts performing informal functions, people will see it differently.

And attitudes toward him had already begun shifting even while he was still in office. Ukrainian outlets reporting on tensions between Yermak and NABU wrote that Yermak allegedly wanted criminal cases opened against the heads of NABU and SAP [the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office], as well as against the head of the president’s party faction, Davyd Arakhamia. He, incidentally, also supported Yermak’s removal. But both Security Service head Vasyl Malyuk and Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko refused to do it.

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— One of the most pressing questions surrounding Yermak’s resignation has to do with the negotiations. How will his dismissal affect the peace talks?

— The peace talks will continue, primarily with the United States. The makeup of the delegation is essentially unchanged — it’s already set. There are experienced people there who have taken part in the negotiations before. The important question now is who will become the delegation’s formal head.

Yermak, of course, did not set the negotiating agenda on his own; the president determined it as part of a collective decision. Some military officials are also involved in the process. Still, Yermak did oversee the U.S. track. For example, there was a difficult moment in Geneva at the start of the talks, when the U.S. side accused Ukraine of leaking information about the American peace plan. Yermak worked with [U.S. Secretary of State Marco] Rubio to defuse the situation.

By rank, Ukraine’s delegation could be headed by Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha. The delegation also includes a very experienced diplomat: First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya. Another possible interim leader is the seasoned negotiator Rustem Umerov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council. But he has one drawback: he, too, is involved in a NABU case as a witness, which carries certain risks.

In any case, Yermak’s resignation will not significantly harm the negotiating process. The main obstacle in the talks remains Russia’s position — it doesn’t want to negotiate an end to the war.

— If the Ukrainian authorities have effectively acknowledged that Yermak became toxic because he’s now implicated in a corruption investigation, how will this affect Ukraine’s relations with Europe and its E.U. integration?

— It’s one of the central issues, and we already have an answer. It came in mid-November, when the first results of Operation Midas were announced. And now, E.U. representatives have issued a statement welcoming Ukraine’s stepped-up anti-corruption efforts at the highest level. Support for Ukraine will continue, and in fact, strengthening the fight against corruption is one of the conditions for Ukraine’s European integration.