Peace talk show: Why key elements of the Ukraine “peace plans” remain unworkable

Until now, frozen Russian assets have been seen as the only plausible source of funding for a large, well-equipped Ukrainian military. On that assumption, Ukraine signed memorandums of intent (1, 2, 3) for expensive weapons purchases, including 150 Swedish Gripen fighter jets, 100 French Rafale jets, and U.S.-made combat helicopters. Those frozen assets were also expected to help cover soldiers’ pay and were viewed as a primary, if not the sole, source of funding for Ukraine’s broader budget, not just defense.

Under the Witkoff–Dmitriev plan, however, the frozen funds would instead be directed toward Ukraine’s economic reconstruction and to a joint U.S.-Russian investment fund. Talks in Berlin failed to produce a unified position on the issue, as European countries were reluctant to seize the assets outright, citing serious legal precedents and unpredictable risks. Leaks suggest the U.S. administration also opposes using the funds without Moscow’s consent.

Europe has instead opted for a compromise: the assets will remain frozen indefinitely, and Ukraine will receive a €90 billion loan secured against them. That arrangement, however, is likely to force a return to the unresolved question of the assets’ ultimate fate as soon as the currently allotted funds run out. Absent such funding, Ukraine’s only alternative to maintaining a large peacetime army would be robust security guarantees. But those, too, remain undefined.

Security guarantees for Ukraine

The original Witkoff-Dmitriev plan did include the phrase “reliable security guarantees,” and with input from Dmitriev himself, Axios later reported that the proposal envisaged time-limited assurances that were nevertheless “in the spirit” of NATO’s Article 5. Of course, NATO membership itself would be the strongest possible security guarantee, but the 28-point plan explicitly demanded that Ukraine enshrine in its constitution a clause prohibiting Kyiv’s accession to the North Atlantic alliance.

According to leaks published by outlets such as The Washington Post, the talks in Berlin produced agreement on a so-called “platinum standard” of guarantees approximating Article 5, which would be put to a vote in the U.S. Congress. However, details of how these guarantees would work and what they would include remain unclear. Another option for effective and credible (i.e. entirely unacceptable to the Kremlin) guarantees would be the deployment of troops from guarantor countries on Ukrainian territory. The 28-point document included a compromise provision on “fighter jets in Poland,” an apparent reference to the “coalition of the willing” plan to help control Ukraine’s airspace without a physical troop presence on the ground.