‘Strong countries don’t treat allies like this’

Meduza’s sources say Russian elites are questioning how Putin’s inaction on Venezuela and Iran fits with a ‘multipolar world’

In the first two weeks of 2026, two of Russia’s major allies have faced monumental crises: Venezuela, whose president was deposed by the U.S. military, and Iran, where unprecedented protests against the ruling regime have swept the country as Washington threatens to intervene. But in both cases, despite the Kremlin’s usual talk of “strategic partnerships” and the “multipolar order,” Moscow has offered its allies practically no assistance — something that has surprised some Russian elites. Here’s what sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza about the reaction to Putin’s inaction.

Russian elites are unsettled by the U.S. capture and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Washington’s efforts to assert control over the South American country, and the ongoing protests in Iran, according to two people close to the Putin administration and one source close to the Russian government who spoke with Meduza.

Moscow has long considered Iran and Venezuela two of its key allies. If they slip out of Russia’s orbit, Meduza’s sources said, it would undercut the idea of a “multipolar world” that President Vladimir Putin has promoted heavily in recent years. At the same time, according to these sources, Russian officials and business leaders hope that U.S. President Donald Trump — who has hinted at regime change in Cuba and openly speaks about annexing Greenland — will stay focused on the Western Hemisphere and lose interest in the war in Ukraine.

As events unfolded in Venezuela and Iran in early January, many senior Russian officials and business figures were traveling, with much of the country effectively shut down for the extended New Year holidays. “That’s when they were watching what was happening around Maduro — like a reality show,” a source close to the Kremlin’s political team told Meduza.

An employee of the presidential envoy’s office in Russia’s Central Federal District told Meduza that he and other officials had discussed the possibility of a U.S. military operation in Venezuela before it happened, but none of them believed Washington would actually move to decapitate the government. “It just seemed too bold, especially since [Venezuela] is supposed to be our ally. There were statements saying Russia would come to its aid if anything happened. In the end, the U.S. went ahead, and nobody helped. It left people confused,” the source said.

This person added that while he originally expected some kind of response from Russia’s leadership, he now understands why there wasn’t one. “There are simply no resources for a response — they’re all tied up in the special military operation,” he explained.

Putin has not commented on the arrest of Nicolás Maduro or on U.S. actions in Venezuela. He has also made no public statement about the recent seizure of tankers from the so-called shadow fleet, one of which was flying the Russian flag. This is despite having several opportunities to do so: Putin returned from his holiday on January 6 to attend a Christmas service at a church on a GRU base, and during his first working days met with State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and Yaroslavl Governor Mikhail Yevrayev.

One source close to the Putin administration and another close to the Russian government believe the president will continue to avoid commenting publicly on these developments. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov also has not commented on Maduro’s arrest. In December 2025, he referred to Caracas as an “ally” and a “partner,” stressing that the leadership of Russia and Venezuela remain in “constant contact.”

Meduza’s source close to the Russian government said that for now, the country’s top leadership has “no desire to pick a fight with Trump.” At the same time, he noted that these kinds of “attacks on Russia’s allies” call into question Moscow’s efforts to promote the idea of a “multipolar world” and undermine the idea of Russia as a dependable partner. “After Venezuela, it will be much harder to push these ideas. Allies are unlikely to see Russia as a reliable partner and protector. This isn’t about Venezuela’s specific resources that could have been used — it’s about the way it was handled. It’s an image loss: strong countries don’t treat allies like this,” the source said.

According to the source close to the Putin administration, for many groups within the Russian elite — including members of the Kremlin’s domestic politics team, regional officials, and business owners not linked to the oil sector — the developments in Venezuela feel remote. “Trump is focused on the Western Hemisphere; he has no time for Ukraine or Eastern Europe, so this works in Russia’s favor,” the source told Meduza, summarizing a view common among this group. “Whether that actually matches reality is another question, but that’s how they see it,” he added.

Meanwhile, all three sources declined to comment on the protests in Iran, saying it was “unclear how they’ll end.” “Overall, it would be nice if America screws up after Venezuela. Plus, Iran is a partner,” the source close to the Putin administration said.

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Kremlin-backed media outlets have received guidelines from the administration on how to cover Maduro’s arrest. These talking points include the idea that Putin was right to “untie Russia from the West” and to “build a sovereign framework.” The instructions also tell state media to frame coverage of events in Venezuela by pointing to the U.S.’s alleged plans to annex Greenland and Trump’s threats to strike Mexico and cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba.

At the same time, journalists at state-controlled and pro-Kremlin outlets told Meduza they’ve received no clear instructions on how to cover the protests in Iran, aside from a recommendation to rely on statements from the Iranian authorities when reporting the news.

A political consultant who works with the Putin administration told Meduza that, for “wider audiences” in Russia, the news from Venezuela or Iran is largely uninteresting:

The average person doesn’t care about Iran or Venezuela — they don’t even really know where those countries are. Maybe they’ve heard they’re some kind of allies or partners, but they don’t really understand why those partners matter. So there’s no real need to push anything hard here, though it can’t hurt to stress that if the U.S. behaves this way towards Venezuela, or does the same to Iran, then we can act the same way in Ukraine. It helps reinforce the sense that we’re in the right.

Reporting by Andrey Pertsev