Not so black and white: Trump is battling an imaginary genocide in South Africa

In short, the laws referred to in the Trump administration’s memorandum do in fact exist; however, they are not aimed at “discriminating against the white minority.” Meanwhile, the “disproportionate” violence against “white farmers” cited by the White House is not observed at all. According to a report released in 2025 by South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies, levels of violence against different population groups are far more strongly influenced by geography and living standards.

Last year, 27,621 people were killed in South Africa — 45 murders per 100,000 residents (in the 1990s the figure reached as high as 67 per 100,000). In other words, South Africa is, in general, one of the most dangerous countries in the world. At the same time, most murders result from personal conflicts, and crime rates vary by region. The highest number of violent incidents occurs in cities, with a substantial share concentrated in poor neighborhoods populated predominantly by nonwhite residents.

There are many reasons for this level of violence: the legacy of apartheid and the struggle against it, large volumes of illegal weapons circulating in the country, corruption, organized crime, and chronic underfunding of law enforcement agencies responsible for crime prevention. True, crime in South Africa does threaten “white farmers” — just as it threatens all other population groups.

The statistics published by the South African government do not provide separate data on attacks committed in rural areas. However, the issue of violence in isolated regions has been discussed since the 1990s, when the authorities identified combating this type of crime as a state priority. In 2001, a special committee was established, and a report published in 2003 concluded that nearly 90 percent of murders in rural areas were committed in the course of attempted robberies.

South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies says that in 2025 this motive remains the primary driver of such crimes. “Cases with potential racial or political motives — such as slogans written at crime scenes or statements reportedly made by attackers — are exceedingly rare,” the report states. “Between January and March 2025, six people were murdered on farms or small holdings — two farmers and four employees or residents. Only one victim, a resident, was white. Over the same period, 5,727 people were murdered across South Africa — about 64 per day.”

Four-meter-high electrified fences, hired security, and regular patrols are a routine part of life for white farmers in South Africa, but they are the result not of a genocide against whites but extreme inequality rooted in the apartheid era and a persistent high overall level of crime. It is for this reason that some Afrikaners affected by Trump’s resettlement proposal welcomed the memorandum.